Written Commentary
Ag Market View for July 26.24
July 26, 2024
SOYBEANS
Soybeans ended mixed with new crop gaining on old. Weekly US soybean export remain slow. There was some talk that some ridging could develop later this summer across parts of the US Midwest. This could especially impact the 2021 US soybean crop. Weekly US soybean exports were near 194 mt vs 343 last year. Season to date exports are near 56.2 mmt vs 35.0 last year. USDA goal is 62.0 vs 45.7 ly. In bushels, soybean exports were near 7 mil bu vs 12 ly. Season to date exports are near 2,065 vs 1,288 ly. USDA goal is 2,280 vs 1,682 ly. Private analyst still look for 88 US mil 2021 soybean acres vs USDA 87 and Informa 88. Analyst still look for US 2021/22 soybean carryout near 120 mil bu vs USDA 140 and Informa 132. SN ended near 15.22. Range was 15.06 to 15.25. SX ended near 13.62. Range was 13.41-13.63.
CORN
Corn futures traded lower. CZ lost to CN. Corn market continued to find resistance from the private guess of US 2021 corn acres near 96 vs USDA 91. There were also no new China buying US new crop corn announced today. Favorable US 2 week Midwest weather continues to weighed on new crop corn futures. Bulls will have to wait for a weather change for prices to begin to trade higher. Weekly US corn exports were near 1,727 mt vs 1,097 last year. Season to date exports are near 48.8 mmt vs 27.4 last year. USDA goal is 70.4 vs 45.1 ly. In bushels, corn exports were near 68 mil bu vs 43 ly. Season to date exports are near 1,924 vs 1,081 ly. USDA goal is 2,775 vs 1,778 ly. Private analyst still look for 93 US mil corn acres vs USDA 91 and Informa 96. Analyst still look for US 2021/22 corn carryout near 1,150 mil bu vs USDA 1,507 and Informa 1,938. Most look for US corn plantings to be near 91-92 pct. USDA will release their first US corn crop ratings. Ratings should be above average. Highest rating was 79 pct G/E in 1994 and 78 pct G/E is 2007 and 2019.
WHEAT
Wheat futures traded lower led by Minn HRS. Rains in parts of US north plains and talk of higher US HRW crop offered resistance. US SRW crop is also rated above average. Matif wheat futures continued to trend lower on better rains. Old crop EU wheat supplies continue to tighten Egypt bought Romanian wheat in their tender. Weekly US wheat exports were near 574 mt vs 464 last year. Season to date exports are near 24.9 mmt vs 24.3 last year. USDA goal is 26.2 vs 26.3 ly. In bushels, wheat exports were near 21 mil bu vs 17 ly. Season to date exports are near 916 vs 896 ly. USDA goal is 965 vs 965 ly. USDA is expected to rate the US winter wheat crop near 50 pct G/E vs 48 last week. USDA is also expected to also estimate US spring wheat plantings near 94 pct vs 85 last week. USDA is expected to est the HRS crop 57 pct G/E. WN is near 6.60 support. KWN is near 6.00 support. MWN is near 6.75 support. Most of the wheat news is negative.
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