Written Commentary
Ag Market View for June 17.25
June 17, 2025
CORN
Prices ranged from fractionally lower in new crop to $.03 higher in old crop. After trading below Dec-25 futures yesterday for the first time in over 6 months, July-25 closed a nickel over today. Ethanol production slumped to 993 tbd, or 292 mil. gallons, down from 300 mil. the previous week and down 1% YOY. Production was below expectations and the lowest in 53 weeks. There was 99 mil. bu. of corn used in the production process, or 14.16 mil. bu. per day, well below the 15.1 needed to reach the USDA forecast of 5.50 bil. bu. Production has fallen below the pace needed to reach the USDA forecast for 6 consecutive weeks. In the MY to date there has been 3.78 bil. bu. used, or 15.05 mbd, an annualized pace of 5.492 bil. Despite the lower than expected production, ethanol stocks rose to 25.4 mil. barrels, above expectations and above YA stocks at 24.5 mb. Implies gas demand actually rose 1% to 8.794 mbd, however was down 1% YOY. The head of Brazil’s Corn and Sorghum growers association projects their countries corn production in 2024/25 at 125 mmt, below the updated USDA forecast of 130 mmt. They went on to state corn usage for ethanol production has so far reached 20 mmt adding that this volume could double in a short period of time. Tomorrow’s export sales are expected to range from 50-80 mil. bu.
SOYBEANS
Prices were mostly higher with beans up $.02-$.05 led by old crop, meal was $1-$2 lower while oil jumped another 80-85 points. Bean and oil spreads were stronger while meal spreads made new lows. A fresh 3 month high for July-25 beans with next major resistance at the Feb. high near $11.05. Nov-25 beans closed higher for the 6th consecutive session. Fresh 5 week low for July-25 meal as it remains stuck between $290-$300 per ton. July-25 bean oil has shot up to its highest level since Oct-23. Spot board crush margins improved $.01 to $1.40 bu. with bean oil PV jumping up to 47.3% the highest since Nov-22. Global weather remains mostly favorable. Thru early next week US precipitation is expected to favor the N. plains and SE Midwest. By the middle of next week widespread rains and cooler temperatures are forecast for a vast majority of the nation’s midsection, nearly ideal for early crop development. Conab will be out tomorrow with Brazilian production updates. While weekend trade talks with China were constructive and the lowering of tariffs was certainly welcome news, the clock is ticking for the Trump Administration to get a more permanent trade deal complete by early Aug. The USDA’s new crop soybean export forecast at 1.815 bil. will be difficult to achieve even with Chinese tariffs on US goods only at 10%. Combined production in SA was cut 500k tons on Monday due to lower production in Paraguay, however at 228 mmt, it’s still a record high up nearly 15 mmt from last year’s record which will continue to provide plenty of competition in the global marketplace. With the 2025/26 US soybean stocks/use ratio projected at 6.7%, a 3 year low, the Ave. farm price at $10.25 would historically appear a touch low. Export sales tomorrow are expected to range from 20-36 mil. bu. for beans, 100-350k tons of meal, and 0-30k tons of oil.
WHEAT
Prices held sharply mixed into the close with CGO and KC up $.07-$.11 while MGEX was $.03-$.04 lower. Fresh contract lows in MGEX futures for the 3rd consecutive day. Day 1 of the Kansas wheat tour estimates yields at 50.5 bpa, above the 5-year Ave. of 45.1 bpa and just above the YA est. of 49.9 bpa. On Monday the USDA pegged KS wheat yields at 50 bpa, well above the 43 recorded YA, however still well below their record yield of 57 bpa back in 2016. The 3 day crop tour concludes on Thursday when participants will release a final production and yield forecast. Good rains will start filling in across the N. plains today bringing relief from recent record high temps. Russia’s Ag. Ministry stated that frost damage this month impacted roughly 100k hectares of production, roughly 1/10th of the level impacted YA. Wire services are reporting the volume of wheat purchased by Algeria in their most recent tender is approaching 650k-700k mt. Prices appear to be centered around $244.50/mt CF, down roughly $20 per ton from a month ago. Wheat stocks/use among major exporting countries increased from 15.4% to 16.1% in Monday’s WASDE report. For the 25/26 MY stocks/use jumps to 16.4%, a 7 year high. Export sales tomorrow are expected to range from 6-24 mil. bu.
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