Written Commentary
Ag Market View for March 4.2026
March 4, 2026
CORN
Prices were $.01-$.03 lower as spreads weakened. May-26 briefly dipped below its 50 day MA with next support at LW’s low at $4.37 ¼. The USDA announced a flash sale of 125k mt (5 mil. bu.) to an unknown buyer. Ethanol production slipped to 322 mil. gallons last week, down from 325 mil. the previous week. Production was in line with expectations and YA. There was 108 mil. bu. used in the production process, or 15.46 mil. bu. per day, in line with the pace needed to reach the USDA forecast of 5.6 bil. Ethanol stocks jumped to an 11 month high at 26.3 mil. barrels. Gasoline demand slipped 5% to 8.292 tbd and was down 6.6% YOY. For now spot May-26 has rejected trade above $4.50. Could be settling back into a $4.25-$4.55 range. The biggest issue confronting the US farm economy is lack of profitability for basic row crops. While prices and input costs surged at the beginning of the Russia/Ukraine war, we’ve since seen prices come down, however not the case for input costs. Tomorrow’s export sales are expected to range from 30-64 mil. bu.
SOYBEANS
Prices were mixed with beans down $.01, meal was off $4-$5 while bean oil was up 30-80 points. Spreads were mixed as oil spreads surged, meal spreads softened while beans were mixed. May-26 meal violated support at its 100 day MA. May-26 bean oil carved out its 8th consecutive higher close as speculative traders returned as net buyers. While crude oil was little changed, heating oil prices jumped to fresh contract highs. Spot crude oil held within yesterday’s range closing just under $75 a barrel. The Trump Admin. is working to reopen passage thru the Straits of Hormuz Spot board crush margins were little changed at $2.13 bu. while bean oil PV spiked to 50.8% closing in on last summer’s all-time high at 51.3%.
WHEAT
Prices ranged from $.04-$.06 lower with CGO and KC the downside leaders. Spreads were steady to firmer in CGO and KC. CGO May-26 held support above LW’s low at $5.63 ½. Support for KC May-26 is at $5.56 ¾. We saw the first deliveries against Mch-26 KC of 91 contracts. In the US heavy rains across C. IL and IN also pushed across S. OH the past 24 hours. Rains over the next week will continue to pull from the SE plains across the central Midwest and ECB. Lighter amounts for the WCB and N. plains. Week 2 of the outlook across the Central Midwest indicates a return of below normal temperatures. At this point damaging type cold is not expected. Canadian wheat acres are expected to slip to 26.4 mil., down from 26.9 YA. The range of est. is 26 – 29.2 mil. Russian grain shipments to Iran have stalled after the recent US/Israeli attacks. Winter wheat ratings in Kansas slipped 3% since early Feb-26 to 58% G/E. Export sales are expected to range from 10-18 mil. bu.
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