Written Commentary
Ag Market View for March 3.2026
March 3, 2026
CORN
Prices were $.01-$.02 higher with spreads little changed. May-26 held within yesterday’s range closing just above its 100 day MA at $4.46. New crop Dec-26 traded to a 9 month high before backing up. The USDA announced a flash sale of 196k mt (7.8 mil. bu.) to an unknown buyer. After heavy selling yesterday speculators are pretty much flat in the corn market. Corn used for the production of ethanol in Jan-26 at only 461 mil. bu. was well below expectations of 483 mil. The data suggests sorghum usage as a feedstock continues to grow at the expense of corn. In the first 5 months of the 25/26 MY corn usage is down .5% from YA vs. the USDA forecast of up 3%. The USDA corn usage est. is starting to look too high. Tomorrow’s EIA report is expected to show ethanol production range between 326-338 mil. gallons, vs. 329 mil. the previous week. As of Mch 1st EU corn imports for the 25/26 MY at 11.74 mmt are down 21% YOY. US FOB offers at the Gulf remain $.10-$.20 bu. above Argentine offers into the summer months.
SOYBEANS
Prices were steady to higher across the complex. Soybeans ranged from $.03-$.06 higher, meal was up $1-$2 while oil was steady to 10 higher. Bean and oil spreads were mixed while meal spreads firmed. May-26 beans have held within yesterday’s range. May-26 meal has 100 day MA support at $310.80. May-26 oil filled yesterday’s gap before recovering. Nov-26 traded to its highest level since May-24. Prices couldn’t hold overnight strength, nor the midday weakness closing at about midrange. Early gains were driven by a surge to new highs in energy markets and news that US/China trade negotiators will meet in Mid-March in Paris. While this meeting may still pave the way for a Trump/Xi summit in Beijing starting late this month, it appears the prospects of additional Chinese purchases of US soybeans is becoming less likely. Spot FOB offers at the US Gulf are now $1.30 bu. above Brazil. While that difference slips to only $.85 bu. by June, it’s still difficult to envision additional Chinese purchases under those pricing dynamics. Production est. in Brazil have trended lower with too wet of conditions in the north while dry in the south. Recent forecasts have come in just below the USDA’s 180 mmt. Census crush in Jan-26 at 227.8 mil. bu. was slightly above expectations. YTD crush is up 7.4% from YA vs. the USDA forecast of up 5.1%. Crush Feb-26 thru Aug-26 will need to reach 1.451 bil. bu. vs. 1.402 bil. YA. The Ave. daily crush rate has leveled off near 7.4 mil. bu. day since peaking just above 7.6 mil. in Oct-25. Bean oil stocks rose 11.7% to 2.433 bil. lbs., slightly above expectations and the highest since April-23. EU soybean imports as of Mch. 1st at 8.3 mmt are down 10.4% YOY. Meal imports at 12.2 mmt are down 6%.
WHEAT
Prices ranged from $.03 lower CGO to $.03 higher in KC and MIAX. Support for CGO May-26 rests at LW’s low of $5.63 ½. KC May-26 resistance is at $5.95 ¼. Inside trade for MIAX May-26. Waves of precipitation are expected to move across the US midsection this week. Heaviest totals across the SE plains along with the central and ECB, helping ease drought concerns ahead of spring plantings. Mostly dry in the SE. Some scattered rains for the SW and northern plains. Still no deliveries against Mch-26 futures across the 3 classes. Jordan passed on making any purchase in their recent 120k mt tender. Australia’s Dept. of Agricultural raised their 25/26 wheat production forecast to 36 mmt, while the 3rd highest ever it’s still below the USDA forecast of 37 mmt. The Russian port at Novorossiysk while not officially closed remains significantly disrupted due to Ukrainian drone attacks this past weekend. EU soft wheat exports as of Mch. 1st at 15.57 mmt are up 8% YOY.
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