Written Commentary
Ag Market View for March 24.2026
March 24, 2026
CORN
Prices were $.02-$.03 higher in 2 sided trade while spreads were mixed. Inside trade for May-26 and Dec-26 futures. I expect US export demand to remain strong as US FOB premium over Argentina has narrowed recently while remaining well below Brazil into the summer months. EU corn imports as of Mch. 22nd at 12.98 mmt are down 17% YOY. US corn plantings are underway with LA at 46%, TX at 42%, MS 26% and AR 9%. Dry conditions in the S. plains and Delta region should allow for good progress this week. I’ve got US 2026 corn acres slipping to 93.75 mil., down just over 5 mil. from YA and 250k from the USDA Forum est. in Feb-26.
SOYBEANS
Prices were mostly lower in two sided trade. Beans closed weak finishing $.03-$.09 lower. Meal was off $3-$4 while oil is up 15-40 points. Inside trade for May-26 beans and oil. After moderate speculative buying yesterday I’ve got MM’s holding a record long position in bean oil at nearly 131k contracts. Traders await clarity from the EPA on the long awaited RVO/SRE policies along with key USDA stocks and acreage data next week. Yesterday EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin said US biofuel blending quota’s would be announced before month-end however could come as early as Friday when the Trump Admin. is hosting an Ag. event at the White House. If neither happens, look for prices to retest $11 this Spring. With Pres. Trump’s trip to Beijing likely delayed until late April at the earliest and US Gulf offers still $1 bu. over Brazilian FOB offers I believe the odds China buys a significant amount of old crop soybeans to be very low. Meanwhile China/Brazil have reached an agreement to drop the zero-tolerance for the presence of weeds in Brazilian soy shipments. The recent collapse of the July/Nov spreads tells me the market is sensing the same. EU soybean imports at 8.92 mmt are down 11% YOY. Meal imports at 13.23 mmt are down 3.6%.
WHEAT
Prices were $.02-$.04 higher with all 3 classes seeing 2 sided trade. Both CGO and KC May-26 contracts held within yesterday’s range. Both the 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks show above normal precipitation across the US plains, which would be of great benefit to the winter crop emerging from dormancy. Conditions in KS fell 6% in the past week to 46% G/E, CO fell 5% to 24% G/E, OK was down 4% to only 14% G/E while TX improved 1% to 16%. I’ve got Mch. 1st stocks at 1.323 bil. bu. up from 1.237 bil. YA. Stocks divided by usage over the 1st 9 months of the MY at 81% is just above the 80% from YA and the highest in 6 years. July-26 futures near $6.05 is fairly valued given the implied stocks/use ratio from a historical perspective. Acres have fallen from the January forecast to March est. 3 of the past 4 years. EU soft wheat exports at 17.14 mmt are up 6% YOY.
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