Written Commentary
Ag Market View for May 20.25
May 20, 2025
CORN
Prices were $.01 ½ – $.07 higher today as old crop continued to gain on new crop. New high for the week in spot May-25 as it closed above its 100 day MA. Rumors that US sold a small volume of corn to Brazil likely triggered to old crop strength. Growing conditions for much of Brazil’s 2nd corn crop regions remain favorable. Perhaps some concern over growing dryness in SC state of Parana which typically accounts for nearly 15% of the safrinha crop. Old crop exports at 59 mil. bu. were at the high end of expectations. YTD commitments at 2.048 bil. are up 25% from YA, vs. the USDA forecast of up 7%. Current commitments represent 84% of the USDA forecast, above the historical average of 77%. Shipments are up 30%. Pace analysis would suggest a higher export forecast than the current 2.45 bil. bu. however tariffs continue to cloud that picture. The IGC is forecasting 25/26 global corn production at 1.269 bil. mt., up 4.3% from YA. Mch. 1st stocks divided by total usage for Q1 and Q2 at 95% is the lowest since 2021/22. July corn near $4.75 would appear to be a slightly undervalued. US corn area in drought fell 2% in the past week to 53%.
SOYBEANS
Prices were mixed today with beans steady to $.05 higher led by old crop, meal was $1-$2 lower, while oil was up 35 points. Spreads firmed in beans and meal, while steady in oil. May-25 beans shook off the early weakness closing higher in quiet 2 sided trade. Fresh 2 week low for May-25 meal with support at the March low at $291.30. May-25 oil rejected trade below $.42 rallying to close near session highs. China imported just over 9.1 mmt of US soybeans in Jan/Feb, well above the 4.96 mmt from YA. This likely as they loaded up before higher tariffs kicked in. Chinese imports from Brazil fell 48% in Jan/Feb to just under 3.6 mmt. US and Chinese officials are expected to speak next Monday to discuss the Trump Administration plan to charge giant fee’s on Chinese made vessels that dock at American ports. Bean exports at 13 mil. bu. were below expectations. YTD commitments at 1.669 bil. are up 13% from YA vs. the USDA forecast of up 8%. Commitments represent 91% of the USDA forecast, just above the historical average of 90%. China/unknown combined to purchase nearly 8 mil. bu. with outstanding sales slipping to 138 mil. vs 86 mil. YA. Soybean meal sales at 182k tons were below expectations, YTD commitments are up 11% from YA, vs. USDA up 8%. Soybean oil sales at 34.2k mt (75 mil. lbs.) were in line with expectations. YTD commitments at 1.910 bil. lbs. already exceed the USDA forecast of 1.80 bil. lbs. Forecasts are mostly favorable for crop development in Argentina as showers return to western and southern growing areas this weekend. July beans near $10.25 would appear historically undervalued by the market, likely due to tariffs and potential trade war with China. US soybean area in drought dropped 4% to 42%, still well above the 30% from YA. The BAGE lowered their Argentine production forecast 1 mmt to 48.6 mmt, now below the USDA est. of 49 mmt.
WHEAT
Prices were $.06-$.08 lower across the 3 classes at midday with KC futures the downside leader. Spreads in both KC and CGO remain near their recent lows. May-25 KC violated support at the 50 day MA, however held above the 100 day MA at $5.78 ½. Much of KS received some form of precipitation yesterday, however moisture equivalent was less than .25” in many areas. Little to no moisture for the northern and far southern plains. Precipitation over the next 7 days will again favor the southern Midwest, ECB and Great Lakes region. Wheat exports at 10 mil. bu. (-9 mil. – 24/25 MY, 19 – 25/26) were below expectations. Old crop commitments slumped to 766 mil. bu. still up 13% from YA, vs. the USDA forecast of up 18%. Commitments represent 92% of the USDA forecast in line with the historical average. Shipments are up 17%. Old crop cancellations were 10 mil. to Panama and 5 mil. to unknown. By class cancelations were 4.6 mil – HRS, 2.8 – white and 2.4 – HRW. The IGC is forecasting 25/26 global wheat production at 807 mmt., up 1% from YA. US winter wheat areas in drought spiked 7% in the past week to 34%, a 4 month high. Spring wheat in drought held steady at 39%.
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