Written Commentary
Euro Drops on Lagarde’s Growth Warning Amid Tariff Tensions
March 20, 2025
CORN
Prices were $.04-$.05 higher today led by old crop. Spreads are mixed. Inside trade for corn with May-25 back above its 100 day MA. In Brazil much of the CS region along with Mato Grosso and MGDS will continue to see a mix of sunshine and rain over the next 7-10 days, favorable for the development of their 2nd corn crop. Export sales at 38 mil. bu. were in line with expectations. YTD commitments at 1.990 bil. are up 25% from YA, vs. the USDA forecast of up 7%. Current commitments represent 81% of the USDA forecast, above the historical average of 75%. Mexico was the most noted buyer with 17 mil. bu. Pace analysis would suggest a higher export forecast than the current 2.45 bil. bu. however trade tariffs continue to cloudy up the picture. The Rosario Grain Exchange suggest recent rains may not have benefited Argentine crops as much as expected as they cut their production forecast another 1.5 mmt to 44.5 mmt, well below the USDA est. of 50 mmt. Conab raised their Brazilian production forecast .76 mmt to 122.76 mmt, getting closer to the USDA est. of 126 mmt. Ukraine’s corn exports for the 24/25 MY since last July have reached 15.5 mmt, down 9% YOY. US corn acres in drought dropped 5% LW to 55%.
SOYBEANS
Prices were mixed with beans up $.05-$.10, meal was $6-$7 higher, while oil was down 40 points. Spreads were firmer across the complex. May-25 bean are back above $10 with next resistance at the 100 day MA at $10.28 ¼. May-25 meal surged to its highest level in a month trading thru the 50 and 100 day MA’s in the process. Prices were likely responding to a labor strike in Argentina at soy processing plants as workers protest recent layoffs. May-25 oil has slumped to a fresh 2 month low despite another strong week of exports. Spot board crush margins were steady at $1.19 bu. however bean oil PV fell to a new low for the year at 40.2%. Argentina is shifting back to a hot/dry pattern, favorable for harvest following weeks of heavy rain in the Central and southern growing areas. Dry conditions in southernmost Brazil will benefit the remaining soybean harvest, however additional moisture will be needed to support their 2nd corn crop. Bean exports at 29 mil. bu. were above expectations. YTD commitments at 1.656 bil. are up 14% from YA vs. the USDA forecast of up 8%. Commitments represent 91% of the USDA forecast, just above the historical average of 90%. Outstanding sales to China/unknown slipped to 146 mil. vs 99 mil. YA. Soybean meal sales at 185k tons were below expectations. YTD commitments are up 12% from YA, vs. USDA up 8%. Soybean oil sales at 68.5k mt (151 mil. lbs.) were above expectations. YTD commitments at 1.835 bil. lbs. already exceed the revised USDA forecast of 1.80 bil. lbs. This week’s 200 mil. lbs increase to the USDA export forecast wasn’t near enough. The RGE cut their production forecast 1 mmt to 46.5 mmt, below the USDA est. of 49 mmt. Conab raised their Brazilian production forecast 1.3 mmt to 167.4 mmt, getting closer to the USDA est. of 169 mmt. China is expected to import a record 31.3 mmt of soybeans in Q2 of this year, up 4.6% from YA with a vast majority of the supply coming from Brazil. US soybean acres in drought fell 4% in the past week to 46%.
WHEAT
Prices surged $.08-$.15 today led by strength in KC futures. All 3 classes have traded to their highest level for the month. Still no meaningful rain for much of the southern plains over the next week. Above normal temperatures and periods of very high winds are expected thru the end of this week. Exports at 29 mil. bu. were above expectations and a new MY high for old crop. Global importers certainly responded to the plunge in price. YTD commitments at 775 mil. bu. are up 14% from YA, vs. the revised USDA forecast of up 18%. Commitments represent 93% of the USDA forecast vs. the historical average of 91%. By class commitments vs. the USDA forecast are HRW up 53% vs. USDA up 57%, SRW down 32% vs. down 24%, HRS up 7% vs. up 13% and white up 49% vs. up 45%. Algeria reportedly bought at least 450k mt of milling wheat this week, likely from Black Sea origin, at $268.50/mt CF. Tunisia reportedly bought 100k mt of optional origin wheat for spring shipment at roughly $269/mt CF. Still no cease fire in the Ukraine/Russian war. IKAR again lowered their Russian wheat export forecast another 1.5 mmt to 41 mmt, vs. the USDA’s revised est. at 45 mmt. Ukraine’s wheat exports for the 24/25 MY since July have reached 12.4 mmt, up 3% YOY. US winter wheat acres in drought expanded 3% LW to 27% while spring wheat acres in drought held steady at 39%.
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