Ag Market View for Mar 8.24


US ending stocks were left unchanged at 2.172 bil.  The ave US farm price slipped $.05 to $4.75 bu.  Global ending stocks for 2023/24 are forecast to increase to 319.6 mmt from 301.6 mmt in 22/23, slightly below expectations and down 2.4 mmt from the Feb-24 WASDE.  The USDA made no change to Brazil’s production, holding steady at 124 mmt.  Argentine production rose 1 mmt to 56 mmt which was more than offset by a 1 mmt reduction in Ukraine and 1.3 mmt cut in South Africa.  Exports rose 1 mmt in Argentina and 1.5 mmt in Ukraine.  While Brazilian weather and 2nd crop production prospects will be crucial to price discovery, the markets attention will gradually shift to the US planting season and the stocks/acreage report at month-end.  Initial resistance for May-24 corn is the 50 day MA, currently $4.50, followed by $4.63.    

ADMIS Market Dashboards


US ending stocks were left unchanged at 315 mil.  The ave US farm price held steady at $12.65 bu.  Soybean meal production rose 100k tons without raising crush.  Offsetting the higher supplies was a 400k short ton reduction in domestic usage while raising exports 500k tons to a record 15.8 mil. short tons (14.3 mmt).  Global ending stocks for 2023/24 are forecast to increase to 114.3 mmt from 102.2 mmt in 22/23, slightly below expectations and down 1.7 mmt from the Feb-24 WASDE.  The USDA made no change to Argentina’s production, holding steady at 50 mmt.  Brazil’s production slipped 1 mmt to 155 mmt, vs. expectations for nearly a 4 mmt cut.  Brazil’s export forecast rose 3 mmt to 103 mmt matching the increased import forecast from China, now up to 105 mmt for the 23/24 MY.  The USDA also increased Chinese old crop 22/23 MY imports 3.65 mmt to 104.5 mmt.  Spot board crush margins firmed up a few cents to close the week at $.82 bu. with soybean oil PV settling back 1% to 40%.  Today’s price action suggests the market is more interested in seeing Conab’s production updates early next week.  Next resistance for May-24 soybeans is $11.92 followed by the 50 day MA, currently $12.10 ¾.  


US wheat ending stocks rose 15 mil. bu. to 673 mil. due to a drop in exports.  Expectations were for stocks holding steady.  SRW winter exports dropped 10 mil. while HRW fell 5 mil.  The US Ave. farm price slipped $.05 to $7.15 bu.  Global stocks are forecast to drop to 258.8 mmt, down from 271 mmt YA and very little changed from Feb-24.  Production was increased by .5 mmt or less in Argentine, Australia and Russia with a modest drop in the EU.  Exports rose 1 mmt in Ukraine and .5 mmt in Australia.  The UN World Food Price Index fell to 117.3 in Feb-24, the 7th consecutive monthly decline, and the lowest reading since Feb-2021.  Stats Canada is due out with acreage estimates at 7:30 AM CST on Monday.  All wheat acres are expected to slip to 26.6 mil. in 2024, down from 26.9 in 2023.  Estimates range from 25.9 – 27.3 mil.  KC May-24 extended its premium to Chicago May-24 to $.51, the highest in 4 months.

All charts provided by QST

>>See more market commentary here.

Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.

ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.                  

A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.

© 2021 ADM Investor Services International Limited.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone.  Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.  The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM.  The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared.  The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets.  However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.

Latest News & Market Commentary

Explore the latest edition of The Ghost in the Machine

Explore Now