Written Commentary
Ag Market View for Apr 26.24
April 26, 2024
CORN
CK is down 6 cents and near 4.26. Dalian corn futures continue to slide lower due to increase imports from Ukraine. Historically end of March USDA report could have a volatile price reaction. Trade is looking for US 2024 corn acres at 91.8 vs Ag forum 91.0 and 94.6 ly. Trade is also looking for March 1 corn stocks at 8,427 mil bu vs 7.206 ly. Key could be pct on farm. Corn open interest continue to increase with some crediting increase Index buying. Weekly US ethanol production was up 5 pct vs ly. Stocks were up 2 pct vs ly and highest since March 2023. US corn export price is $192 vs Brazil $182 and Ukraine $180.Weekly US corn export sales are est at 800-1,300 mt vs 1,185 last week.
SOYBEANS
SK is down 6 cents and near 11.92. SK is resting above moving average support near 11.92 and then 11.80. Historically end of March USDA report could have a volatile price reaction. Farmers could add to cash sales on a rally. Most feel USDA will estimate US March 1 soybean stocks above last year and 2024 acres also above last year. China soymeal prices continue to slide lower. Their crush margins also are in the red. Brazil soybean export prices are 150 cents below US. One crop watchers still estimates Brazil soybean crop at 145 mmt vs USDA 155. Difference could be USDA has higher acres. Both Malaysia and Dalian palmoil futures were lower. Baltimore bridge collapsed after support columns was hit by a container ship to slow exports there and increase US inflation. US soybean export price is $464, Brazil $430. US soymeal export price is $408, Brazil $378. Weekly US soybean export sales are est at 300-700 mt vs 494 last week. Weekly US soymeal export sales are est at 150-350 mt vs 243 last week.
WHEAT
WK is 3 cents higher and near 5.47. There remains little bullish news in the wheat World. Russia continues to offer wheat below other origins. Russia March wheat exports could be a record 5 mmt. US plains is dry but HRW crop ratings remain above last year. US export shipments remain below pace needed to reach USDA goal. Australia and Matif futures are lower on lower demand. USDA is expected to estimate March 1 stocks above last year. USDA is also expected to estimate US 2024 all wheat acres lower than last year but trend yields and stagnate demand could still increase US 2024/25 carryout. Russia continues to offer wheat below other origins. Russia March wheat exports could be a record 5 mmt. US SRW export price is $225, Russia has moved up to $206. Weekly US wheat export sales are est at -100 to 300 mt vs -109 last week.
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