Ag Market View for Mar 26.24


CK was down 2 cents and near 4.35. CK has been drifting lower and spreads widening due to concern about demand. Historically, US corn exports tend to peak in early May due to South America competition. There is less talk about lower Brazil supply but C Brazil needs a rain and lower temps. One crop watchers still estimates Brazil corn crop at 112 mmt vs USDA 124. One group lowered Argentina crop to 54 mmt due to recent heavy rains. USDA is 56 mmt. Dalian corn futures continue to slide lower due to increase imports from Ukraine. There remains new concern about Ukraine export pace due to recent attacks on their energy infrastructure. Historically, end of March USDA report could have a volatile price reaction. Corn open interest continue to increase with some crediting increase Index buying


SK was down 9 cents and near 12.00. SK is resting above moving average support near 11.92 and then 11.80. Resistance is near recent high at 12.26. Historically end of March USDA report could have a volatile price reaction. Farmers could add to cash sales on a rally. Most feel USDA will estimate US March 1 soybean stocks above last year and 2024 acres also above last year. China soymeal prices continue to slide lower. Their crush margins also are in the red. Brazil soybean export prices are 150 cents below US. One crop watchers still estimates Brazil soybean crop at 145 mmt vs USDA 155. Difference could be USDA has higher acres. Both Malaysia and Dalian palmoil futures continue higher on talk of lower Indonesia export supply and higher India and China import demand. Domestic Indonesia domestic biofuel demand is on the increase, Baltimore bridge collapsed after support column hit by a container ship. Most of the Atlantic port exports are soybeans and soymeal.


WK is lower and near 5.45. There remains little bullish news in the wheat World. Russia continues to offer wheat below other origins. US plains is dry but HRW crop ratings remain above last year. US export shipments remain below pace needed to reach USDA goal. Australia and Matif futures are lower on lower demand. Chicago wheat futures spreads continue to widen. USDA is expected to estimate March 1 stocks above last year. USDA is also expected to estimate US 2024 all wheat acres lower than last year but trend yields and stagnate demand could still increase US 2024/25 carryout. Russia and RF/Grain Flower dispute continues with Russia refusing to allow 400 mt wheat to be exported. Most doubt there will have a lasting price impact since there is an abundant amount of old crop wheat available for export. Importers could slow buying from RF until there is clarity on government actions. RF exported 6 mmt of Russian wheat last year.

All charts provided by QST

>>See more market commentary here.

Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.

ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.                  

A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.

© 2021 ADM Investor Services International Limited.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone.  Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.  The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM.  The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared.  The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets.  However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.

Latest News & Market Commentary

Explore the latest edition of The Ghost in the Machine

Explore Now