Written Commentary
Weekend Rains Could Slow Plantings
April 29, 2024
CORN
CK ended down 2 cents and near 4.37. CK remains in a tight range before the USDA report. Some link lower prices due to better Brazil weather. Last week, Managed funds were net buyers of 13,000 corn contracts. Weekly US exports were near 24 mil bu. Season to date exports are near 960 mil bu vs 719 last year. Total export commit is up 19 pct vs last year versus USDA looking for an increase of 26 percent. NOAA estimated that 34 pct of the US corn acres is in drought conditions. IA is 84 pct. Argentina said recent heavy rains may have damaged the corn crop. BAGE lowered their est of the crop from 56.5 mmt vs 54.0 previous. Dalian corn futures were lower due to fact imports to date a double last year at this time.
SOYBEANS
SK is up 16 cents and near 12.09. Last week, Managed funds were net buyers of 6,000 soybean contracts There may additional short covering before USDA March 28 acreage and March 1 stocks report. Weekly US soybean exports were 45 mil bu. Season to date exports are 1,343 vs 1,652 ly. Brazil farmer selling has slowed with harvest near 70 pct done. Dalian soymeal, palmoil and soyoil futures were lower. UK, France and Germany lowered their outlook for 2024 oilseed crops. EU imposed a 50 pct duty on Russia oilseed imports. There were more talk that flip to La Nina could increase chances for a dry and warm US summer. SK found support near the 50 DMA and 11.92. Resistance is near last weeks high of 12.26. BOK is back near the 100 DMA with support near 47.50 and resistance 50.00. SMK is between 20 DMA support at 335 and 50 DMA resistance near 343.
WHEAT
Wheat futures ended mixed and off session highs. Last week, Managed funds were net sellers of 2,000 Chicago wheat contracts. Weekly US wheat exports were 14 mil bu. Season to date exports are 520 vs 613 ly. Lower exports offers resistance. US HRW crop ratings remain above last year. Although there is more talk of dry and warm US spring and summer.
All charts provided by QST
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