Written Commentary
Ag Market View for July 26.24
July 26, 2024
WHEAT
Chicago wheats ended sharply lower. Lower Russia export prices offers resistance. KWK found resistance near 5.86, MWK near 6.60. Matif March futures made new contract lows. Interesting that managed funds are covering Matif shorts but cash long liquidation weighed on futures. Ukraine plus Russia Feb exports are est near a record 6.5 mmt. S&P Global left their estimate of Russia wheat crop at 90 mmt and Ukraine 20 mmt. . KS, NE, OK, TX and CO wheat crop ratings are higher than last year and average. OH, IN, IL, MI, and MO wheat crop ratings are also above average.
CORN
Corn futures ended lower. CK is near 4.24. There is talk of increase China demand for Ukraine corn. Ukraine corn is offered near $171 versus US $190. Crude rallied on talk of higher China demand. Central Brazil could see rain next week. USDA tends to adjust South America crop size on their March report. There is a wide range of estimates for Brazil corn crop as low as 114 mmt vs USDA 124. S&P Global left their estimate of Brazil corn crop at 125 mmt. They reduced their estimate of the Argentina crop 2 mmt ot 55.0. Brazil farmers remain slow sellers of their crop due to dry weather and drop is prices.
SOYBEANS
Soybean were higher. Soymeal futures were higher. There continues to be unconfirmed talk that US may control the imports of used China cooking oil and Canada RSO for renewable fuel production. US missed SAF deadline to determine eligible feedstocks for aviation fuel tax credits. US. Jan US soybean crush is expected to be a new record for January. Most doubt USDA will make much changes to US 2023/24 soybean carryout in March but could increase crush and lower exports equal amount. Abiove est Brazil soybean crop at 153.8 mmt vs 156.1 previous and 159 ly. Brazil exports were est at 97.8 mmt vs 98.1 previous and 101.8 ly. S&P Global left their estimate of Brazil soybean crop at 153 mmt. They reduced their estimate of the Argentina crop 1 mmt ot 52.0. Brazil farmers slowed cash sales. Brazil soybean export prices are still lower than US.
Chart provided by CQG
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