Written Commentary
Ag Market View for July 26.24
July 26, 2024
SOYBEANS
Soybeans ended lower. Some long liquidation before US weekly export sales and USDA report offered resistance. Drop in US cash basis and Index fund roll also weighed on SN. US Census Sep-April soybean exports were up 124 mil bu above weekly inspections to date. This puts USDA in a tough spot if they feel final carryout cannot go below 120. There is some concern that dry and warm weather could be be forecasted for US Midwest states over the next 2 weeks. This could favor, NE, IA, IL, WI, MI and KS. This could lower USDA crop ratings on Monday. Scattered rains could continue in IL, IN, OH and KY. Palm oil prices continue to slip lower on fears of increase supplies versus demand. Trade est US 2020/21 soybean carryout near 122 vs USDA May guess of 120.
CORN
Corn futures managed to ended higher led by the CN. Talk of higher US 2020/21 corn demand offered support. US official Census Sep-April corn exports are running 150 mil bu above inspections to date. This could suggest USDA could increase US 2020/21 export demand tomorrow. Fact many are forecasting Brazil crop below 90 mmt vs USDA May guess of 102 could also raise US 20/21 and 21/22 corn exports. Weekly US ethanol production was up 3 pct from last week and 27 pct from last year. Stocks though were up 2 pct from last week but still down 8 pct from last year. Ethanol margins have crashed from recent highs. Weekly new crop corn export sales are est near 200-600. Some feel China will begin soon to start buying US new crop corn. Some est China will take 30-32 mmt US corn in 2021/22 versus 23 this year. The GFS America weather model did a better job in forecasting the rains in ND over the last 48 hours than either the Canadian or EU. The GFS will now have to be considered more for short term weather. The GFS has some more scattered rains for ND Friday. Long range maps still suggest overall dryness for the US PNW, north US plains and Canada prairies. The 2 week maps are also drier and warmer than normal from a line from CA to MI including key US crop states of IA. MN. WI. MI, NE and KS. There will be continued showers in IL, IN, KY and OH.
WHEAT
Wheat futures ended mixed. WN ended slightly lower and near 6.82. WN found support near 6.70. KWN ended slightly higher and near 6.34. KWN found support near 6.20. MWN ended lower and near 7.64. MWN found support near 7.40. Trade est US 2021 wheat crop near 1,892 mil bu vs 1,872 in May. Range is 1,846 to 1,973. One private group is near 1,924 with HRW near 759 vs 659 ly, SRW 335 vs 266 ly. They est spring wheat near 505 vs 530 ly but could see the final crop lower. End users are 60 pct covered for Q3 and 20-30 pct Q4. Less than 5 pct Q1,22. End users should use this break to add to coverage. Lower KS protein crop could support 12 pro basis. Weekly Wheat new crop sales are est near 200-450 mt vs 398 last week.
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