Written Commentary
Ag Market View for June 5.2026
June 5, 2026
CORN
Prices were off another $.05-$.07 with spreads also weakening. July-26 traded to a new contract low while Dec-26 dipped into a new 10 month low. Favorable US weather combined with lack of demand interest from China continues to fuel long liquidation and lower prices. July-26 settled near the January low on the weekly bar chart at $4.17 ¼. There is still a gap on the weekly bar chart from Sept-25 that would require a trade down to $4.05 ¼ to fill. Despite massive speculative selling yesterday, OI was up nearly 7.5k contracts. Exports are up 26% YOY vs. the USDA forecast is up 15.5%. I look for 2025/26 stocks to hold near last month’s 2.142 bil. in next week’s WASDE update with higher exports offset by lower usage for ethanol production. The BAGE held their Argentine production forecast unchanged at 64 mmt, vs. the USDA est. at 59 mmt. Harvest advanced 6% to 41%. The USDA remains confident the positive test of screwworm in Texas will not grow to widespread outbreak.
SOYBEANS
Prices were lower to sharply lower across the complex while spreads were also weaker all around. Beans were down $.04-$.08, meal was $2-$5 lower while nearby oil futures were off over $.02 lb. Both July and Nov. beans did manage to bounce off session lows. Rains over the next week to favor the central Midwest while much of the nation’s midsection is forecast to see above normal temperature and precipitation into mid-June. Limited relief however for the far WCB. The USDA announced a flash sale of 190k mt of meal to the Philippines. After falling $.17 yesterday, board crush margins plunged another $.27 ½ today to $3.72 ½ bu. with bean oil PV slipping to 54.6%. After raising their crush estimate and lowering their export forecast last month, I see no changes from the USDA this month with stocks holding at 340 mil. bu. Current export commitments are down 18% from YA in line with the current USDA est. Despite the market selloff US spot FOB offers remain above those from SA however US prices competitive against Brazil Sept-26 forward. The BAGE kept their Argentine production forecast unchanged at 50.1 mmt while harvest advanced 7% to 92%. Open interest was lower across the complex yesterday with the heavy speculative selling. Meal was down 22.5k, beans down 12.4k while oil was off 11.8k.
WHEAT
Prices ranged from steady to $.02 lower. CGO July-26 was down $.01 ¾ at $5.80, KC July-26 was up $.00 ½ at $6.20 ¾ while MIAX July-26 was off $.01 ½ at $6.19 ½. CGO July-26 barely held support above its April low of $5.77 ¾. Support for KC July-26 is at $5.98 ¾. The price gap for US wheat and other global exporters has narrowed in recent weeks. BAGE reports Argentine wheat plantings advanced 18% to 32%, well above the 5-year Ave. of 20%. Ukraine states that they struck 5 Russian vessels overnight in territorial waters that were transporting illegal grain trade and the transport of military cargo.
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