Written Commentary
Ag Market View for July 26.24
July 26, 2024
SOYBEANS
The Canadian and more reliable EU weather model are dry over the next 2 weeks for US north plains and upper Midwest. The America GFS model has rains in the forecast late in the 10 day period. The GFS model was enough the drive soybean futures lower from the overnight highs. SN ended near 15.49. Range was 15.43-15.89. Dalian soyoil and palmoil futures were sharply higher. Soyoil has railed over palmoil on talk of higher demand for biofuel. Palmoil has lagged on concern over India demand. Talk yesterday that Idina may drop their edible oil Import tax due to record high domestic prices offered support. Weekly new crop US soybean export sales are est near 0-400 mt versus 248 last week. Most doubt USDA will make big changes to US/World S/D on June 10 and wait for more data on US summer weather and China demand.
CORN
Corn futures had another wild ride today with a wide range. Overnight prices were higher with EU and Canada weather models warm and dry over the next 2 weeks. The American model has chances for rains over parts of the US north plains and upper Midwest late in the 10 day period. Noon American model increased rains. Our weather guy could see 80 pct of US Midwest could see 1 inches of rain in June. 50 pct of the Midwest could see 2 inches. Normal Midwest June rain is near 4 inches. Interesting that the fact the ridge may move west could increase chances for more ridging July and Aug. Weekly US ethanol production was up 2 pct from last week and 35 pct from last year. Stocks were up 3 pct from last week but down 12 pct from last year. Margins turned lower. The current ethanol production pace suggests that USDA estimate for the 2020-21 corn grind for ethanol at 4975 mil bu may eventually have to be revised higher by about 100 mil bu to 5075 mil bu. Weekly US new crop corn sales are est near 300-900 mt vs 5,691 last week. Most doubt USDA will make big changes to US/World S/D on June 10 and wait for more data on US summer weather and China demand.
WHEAT
Wheat futures also had a wild price ride today. A warm and dry US north plains and Canada prairie weather forecast helped overnight prices rally. The less reliable American GFS model showed rains in the north plains late in the 10 day period. That same GFS model added rains in the noon update. WN ended near 6.77. Range was 6.25-6.85. KWN ended near 6.23. Range was 6.17-6.46. MWN ended near 7.81. Range was 7.60- 8.03. There is also talk of drier Russia spring wheat weather and east China is also dry. Weekly new crop wheat export sales are est near 200-500 mt versus 374 last week. Most doubt USDA will make big changes to US/World S/D on June 10 and wait for more data on US summer weather. They could raise SU winter wheat crop. Informa will be out tomorrow with updated World crop outlook and an update for US 2021 winter wheat crop.
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