Written Commentary
Ag Market View for Dec 11.24
December 11, 2024
CORN
Prices were down another $.02-$.06 closing lower for a 6th consecutive session. Spreads widened ahead of tomorrow’s FND. July-24 make fresh lows late in the session having traded to a 3 ½ year low. Next support is at $3.99 ¾, the March low on the weekly bar chart. Dec-24 traded to its lowest level since Aug-21. Prices continue to seek a level that draws better export demand while expectations build for this year’s production. Old crop exports at 21 mil bu were disappointing for a 2nd consecutive week. YTD commitments at 2.101 bil. are still up 38% from YA vs. the USDA forecast of up 29%. Mexico was the only noted buyer last week with 18 mil. bu. while there were 11 mil. bu. of cancellations to unknown. New crop commitments at 127 mil. bu. while above YA, remain historically weak. The International Grains Council raised their global 24/25 production forecast 3 mmt to 1.223 bil. mt, just above the USDA forecast of 1.221 bil. mt. The EU lowered their corn production forecast 3.8 mmt to 64.8 mmt, exactly in line with the June USDA estimate. The BAGE kept their Argentine production forecast unchanged at 46.5 mmt, well below the USDA est. of 53 mmt. Harvest advanced to 55% complete.
SOYBEANS
The soybean complex was mostly lower with beans down $.02-$.10 as spreads sunk ahead of FND. Both meal and oil were steady with spreads firming a touch. July beans closed into 2 ½ month lows with next support at the April low of $11.45 ¾. July-24 meal held support above LW’s low at $357.20 setting up the midday recovery. Spot board crush margins jumped $.11 ½ to $1.20 ½ bu. US weather forecasts are little changed and for the most part remain non-threatening. Today’s updated drought monitor showed a moderate expansion of drought conditions across most crop areas. Old crop bean exports at 10 mil bu were disappointing. Old crop commitments at 1.637 bil. are down 15% from YA in line with the USDA. The USDA announced the sale of 120k (4.4 mil. bu.) of soybeans for 24/25 MY to an unknown buyer. Still no new crop commitments to China. Total new crop commitments at only 45 mil. are the lowest in well over a decade. There were net cancellations of 10.6 thousand tons (Mexico) of soybean oil. YTD commitments are up 15% from YA vs. the USDA forecast of up 19%. Stats Canada raised their 2024 canola acres to 22 mil. up from 21.4 in March and slightly above expectations of 21.5 mil. The BAGE held their soybean production forecast at 50.5 mmt while harvest is wrapping up at 99.7% complete.
WHEAT
Following 8 consecutive lower closes in spot Chicago, wheat prices surged across all 3 classes today. Chicago led the way up $.18-$.19 while KC and MGEX were up $.12-$.15. A day after coming with ¼ cent of its contract low, July-24 Chicago challenged this week’s high at $5.63. Exports at 25 mil. bu. were above expectations and the highest in 5 months. YTD commitments at 224 mil. are up 45% from YA, vs. the USDA forecast of up 11%. By class commitments vs. YA are HRW up 64%, SRW down 23%, HRS up 64% and white up 106%. The recent price collapse has stimulated demand interest. Earlier this week Egypt’s GASC bought 470k mt while Algeria bought 130k mt. Today Jordan is tendering for 120k mt while Saudi Arabia seeks nearly 600k mt for Sept-Dec shipment. The EU increased their soft wheat production forecast 1.7 mmt to 121.9 mmt and also raised their export forecast .55 mmt to 31.65 mmt. The BAGE estimates wheat plantings have reached 81%. Stats Canada lowered their all wheat acres to 26.64 mil., down from 27.05 in March and roughly 300k acres below expectations.
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