Written Commentary
Ag Market View for July 26.24
July 26, 2024
SOYBEANS
Soybean traded higher. Forecast of drier and warmer than normal US upper Midwest weather offered support and offset continues slow US soybean export pace. Weekly US soybean exports were near 7 mil bu vs 8 last week and 17 last year. Season to date exports are near 2,074 mil bu vs 1,305. USDA goal is 2,280 vs 1,682 last year. Most could see final exports near 2,285. Most look for US 2020/21 soybean carryout near 110 vs USDA 120. USDA will update S/D on June 10. Most look for US 2021 soybean acres near 88.5 vs USDA 87.6. USDA will update acres June 30. Some feel yield could be near 51 but carryout near 110 vs USDA 140. Most est US soybean planting pace near 87 pct vs 75 last week and 67 average. Dalian soymeal futures were higher. BON held near 20 day moving average. Palmoil prices were lower on concern over India demand. Talk of higher US demand for biofuel continues to support higher prices.
CORN
Corn futures traded sharply higher due to a US upper Midwest and north plains drier and warmer than normal weather forecast. Talk of lower final Brazil corn crop which could increase US export demand also offered support. Weekly US corn exports were near 81 mil bu vs 68 last week and 47 last year. Season to date exports are near 2,005 mil bu vs 1,128. USDA goal is 2,775 vs 1,778 last year. China weekly exports were near 41 mil bu. Most could see final exports near 2,875. Ethanol demand could also be higher. Most look for US 2020/21 corn carryout near 1,100 vs USDA 1,257. USDA will update S/D on June 10. Most look for US 2021 corn acres near 93.0 vs USDA 91.1. USDA will update acres June 30. Some feel yield could be near 180 but carryout near 1,150 vs USDA 1,507. Most est US corn rating near 70 pct. Some could see a little lower rating due last week upper Midwest frost. Dalian corn futures continue to see some resistance due to large imports. There is talk that China may have already bought 18-19 mmt of new crop corn from all regions. Some feel this year they could take a toal of 30-32 mmt vs USDA guess of 26 and take 40-42 mmt next year.
WHEAT
Wheat futures traded higher. MWN futures jumped higher on a 10 day north plains and Canada prairie drier and warmer than normal weather. Fargo, ND could see temps near 99 on Friday and 100 on Saturday. Most feel long range weather could also be warmer and dry in NA HRS areas. Trade estimates US HRS crop to be rated 45 pct good/ex vs 45 last week. USDA could also est US winter wheat crop 48 pct good/ex vs 47 last week. Some feel US all wheat crop could be near 1,915 mil bu vs USDA 1,82. Winter wheat 1,301 vs USDA 1,283. HRW 735, SRW 336 and white 230. Weekly US wheat exports were near 9 mil bu vs 20 last year. Season to date exports are near 927 mil bu vs 917. USDA goal is 965 vs 965 last year. Most look for US 2021/22 wheat carryout near 780 vs USDA 774.
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