Written Commentary
Ag Market View for July 8.25
July 8, 2025
CORN
Prices were down $.07-$.10 led by spot July-25 as spreads weakened. Next support for July-25 is LW’s low at $4.29 ¼. Dec-25 slipped to a 6 month low with next support at its contract low at $4.28. US weather remains non-threatening as a good mix of rain and warmth is expected over the next week to 10 days. No indications of a blocking high pressure ridge forming over the Midwest bringing heat and dryness over the most critical midsummer months. Money managers were net sellers of nearly 10k contracts LW extending their short position to just over 164k contracts, the largest since Sept-24. Index funds also sold 33k contracts reducing their long position to 294k contracts, the smallest since Nov-24. Export inspections at 66 mil. bu. were at the high end of expectations and well above the 42 mil. bu. needed to reach the revised USDA forecast of 2.650 bil. bu. YTD inspections at 2.049 bil. are up 29% from YA vs. the USDA forecast of up 16%. AgRural reports Brazil’s 2nd crop harvest advanced only 3% LW to 5%, well below YA at 21%.
SOYBEANS
Prices were sharply mixed across the complex. Beans ranged from steady to $.06 higher led by new crop. Oil was up $.04 – $.04 ½ with July-25 synthetically up another 10-20 points. Meal was down $7-$8 per tons. Bean and meal spreads weakened while oil spreads firmed. July-25 beans have stalled out just below its May high at $10.82, same for Nov-25 beans at last month’s high at $10.65 ½. New contract low for July meal with next support at $278.50, its low from Dec-24 on the spot weekly chart. New crop crush margins jumped to just over $2.00 per bu. with bean oil PV jumping out to 48.3%. Spot board crush margins finished at $1.60 ½ bu., well off its recent low at $1.15. Bean oil PV ended just over 49% vs. the all-time high just below 51%. Activity from MM’s was mixed LW as they sold just over 7k contracts of oil while net buyers of 17k beans and 10k meal. Export inspections slumped to 8 mil. bu., at the low end of expectations and below the 14 mil. needed to reach the USDA forecast of 1.850 bil. bu. YTD inspections at 1.669 bil. are up 11% from YA vs. USDA forecast of up 9%. NOPA crush in May-25 at 192.8 mil. bu. was slightly below expectations however well within the range of estimates and a record high for the month. Census crush is likely to come in near 204 mil. bu. bringing YTD crush to 1.845 bil. bu. up 5.9% from YA vs. the USDA forecast of up 5.8%. Crush over the last 3 months of the 24/25 MY will need to reach 575 mil. bu. to reach the USDA forecast of 2.420 bil. vs. 545 mil. YA. Bean oil stocks slipped to 1.373 bil. lbs. vs. expectations of 1.495 bil.
WHEAT
Prices ranged from $.05-$.11 lower across the 3 classes. CGO July fell back to about the midpoint of Friday’s range. July KC failed to hold trade above the 50 day MA. July MGEX failed to trade above this month’s high setting up today’s pullback. MM’s last week were net buyers across all 3 classes of wheat for the 4th consecutive week reducing their combined short position to 183k, down from their recent record short of 235k contracts. Export inspections at 14 mil. bu. were in line with expectations however below the 16 mil. needed to reach the revised USDA forecast of 825 mil. bu. YTD inspections at 22 mil. bu. are down 17% from YA, vs. the USDA forecast of up 1%.
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