Written Commentary
Euro Drops on Lagarde’s Growth Warning Amid Tariff Tensions
March 20, 2025
CORN
Prices were $.04-$.07 higher today, led by new crop. July-24 traded to a new high for the month with next resistance is at $4.71. New monthly high for Dec-24 which also closed above both the 50 and 100 day MA resistance. As temperatures heat up across the nation’s midsection the market appears to be adding weather premium while speculative traders lighten up on short positions. Exports at 45 mil. bu. were in line with expectations. Old crop commitments at 2.060 bil. are up 37% from YA vs. the USDA forecast of up 29%. Current commitments represent 96% of the USDA forecast above the historical average of 94%. Noted buyers last week were Japan – 16 mil., Mexico and Columbia – 7 mil. with another 7 mil. to China/unknown. As we expected to USDA made no changes to their export forecast yesterday. New crop commitments at 117 mil. bu. remain historically weak. Conab raised their Brazilian production forecast 2.5 mmt to 114.1 mmt, narrowing the gap as the USDA forecast remains at 122 mmt. Mexico lowered their corn production forecast to 21.9 mmt, down 9% from YA and below the USDA est. of 25 mmt. US corn area in drought fell another 1% to 2%, vs. 57% YA. The BAGE kept their Argentine production forecast unchanged at 46.5 mmt, still well below the USDA est. of 53 mmt. Harvest has reached 40%. Not much change supply/demand change among global corn exporters this month.
SOYBEANS
The soybean complex finished higher across the board with beans up $.12-$.14, meal was up $5-$8 led by spot July-24, while oil recovered to close 10 higher. July-24 beans held support above yesterday’s low at $11.71. Upside resistance at the 50/100 day MA at $11.98. July meal held support at its 50 day MA with next resistance at $371.40. July-24 oil continues to consolidate just below $.44. Rain over the next week will favor the NW half of the corn and soybean belt with only scattered totals for the SE half. Surging temperatures in parts of China is also on the markets radar as plantings are being negatively impacted. Spot board crush margins improved $.07 to $1.03 ¼ matching a 5 month high. Bean exports at 14 mil. bu., nearly all old crop, were in line with expectations. Old crop commitments are down 15% from YA in line with the USDA. Shipments are down 17%. The USDA also announced the sale of 120k (4.4 mil. bu.) of soybeans to unknown. Total new crop commitments at only 38 mil. are the lowest in well over a decade with still no new crop sales to China. As we expected the USDA made no change to their export forecast in beans while raising both meal and oil. Soybean meal sales at 170k tons, (143k – 23/24 MY, 27k – 24/25) were below expectations. Old crop commitments are up 10% from YA, vs. the revised USDA forecast of up 9%. Soybean oil sales at 18k tons were at the high end of expectations. Old crop commitments are up 26%, vs. the revised USDA forecast of up 19%. Conab lowered their Brazilian forecast slightly to 147.35 mmt, narrowing the gap with the revised USDA est. of 153 mmt. US soybean area in drought fell 1% to 1%, vs. 51% YA. The BAGE kept their Argentine production forecast unchanged at 50.5 mmt, in line with the USDA est. of 51 mmt. Harvest wrapping up at 96% complete. Not much change in stocks among global exporters this month however would expect that to change in futures WASDE report’s with lower production expected from Brazil
WHEAT
Prices were mixed today with spreads narrowing a touch. Chicago was steady to $.03 higher while both KC and MGEX were steady to $.03 lower. Inside trade for Chicago and MGEX July-24 contracts. July-24 KC made a new 6 week low before recovering. History suggests final WW production can go either way from yesterday’s 1.295 bil. bu. forecast. Since 2010 final production was above the June est. 7 times and below it 7 times. The largest increase being 165 mil. bu. in 2016 and largest drop being 130 mil. in 2015. Right now leaning higher. Net wheat exports at 8 mil. bu. were below expectations. There was also 4 mil. carried over from old crop. YTD commitments are up 22% from YA, vs. the revised USDA forecast of up 11%. US winter wheat area in drought dropped 5% to 16%, while spring wheat areas held steady at 3%. Strategie Grains lowered the EU soft wheat production forecast 1.7 mmt to 121.8 mmt. They also lowered their Russian production forecast to a range from 78-80 mmt, down from their previous est. of 89.9 mmt. Yesterday the USDA lowered their EU all-wheat forecast 1.5 mmt to 130.5 mmt and cut Russia’s production 5 mmt to 83 mmt. Global stocks among major exporters continues to grind lower. At just over 13% it’s the lowest in decades.
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