Ag Market View for July 30.24

CORN

Prices were $.06-$.08 lower with several spreads reaching new lows.  Sept-24 closed into new contract lows with prices reaching their lowest level since Oct-2020.  Dec-24 managed to hold above its July low of $4.03.  While US crop ratings were mixed they continue to suggest record yields for corn, soybeans and spring wheat.  Corn ratings improved 1% to 68% G/E vs. expectations of dropping 1%.  Overall ratings remain the highest since 2020.  Ratings would suggest an overall US yield of roughly 183.5 bpa vs. the July USDA forecast of 181 bpa.  Conditions improved in 10 states, declined in 7 states while holding steady in 1.  77% of the crop is silking while 30% of the crop is in dough stage vs. 25% YA and 5-year Ave. of 22%.  Crop progress in the Dakota’s and Minnesota remain about 1 week behind normal.  A day after AgRural estimated the 2nd corn harvest in the CS region of Brazil had reached 91%, Safras & Mercado est. it was only 80% harvested.  Tomorrow’s EIA report is expected to show ethanol production range between 1,080 – 1,090 tbd in the week ended Fri. July 26th, vs. 1,095 tbd the previous week.  EU corn imports in the first 4 weeks of the 24/25 MY have reached 1.74 mmt, up 30% from YA.  The USDA has lowered their average corn yield in the August production report each of the last 3 years.

QST Chart Corn 7.30

SOYBEANS

Prices were mostly lower with nearby spreads weakening again for soybeans and soybean oil ahead of tomorrow’s FND for Aug-24 contracts.  Meal spreads continue to firm a  touch.  Beans were down $.16-$.28, meal prices were $3-$6 lower, while oil recovered to close mixed.  Aug-24 beans made new contract lows late trading to the lowest level for the spot contracts since Oct-2020.  Nov-24 beans managed to hold ¼ cent above yesterday’s $10.18 low.  Inside trade for Aug-24 oil.  Inside day for Aug-24 meal as it consolidates near both its 50 and 100 day MA.  Rains continue to benefit the NC Midwest along with the ECB.  No better than scattered rains for the southern plains and areas of the WCB where 100+ degree heat will continue to delete soil moisture.  Above normal temperatures will impact the Central and ECB thru the first week of August however continuous days of 90+ degree readings aren’t expected.  Crop conditions slipped 1% to 67% G/E vs. expectations of holding steady.  Rating remain the highest since 2020.  Current ratings suggest an average yield of 53.5 bpa, vs. the July USDA forecast of 52 bpa.  Ratings increased in 9 states, fell in 8, holding steady in 1.  77% of the crop is blooming vs. 79% YA and above the 5-year Ave. of 74%.  44% of crop is setting pods vs. 46% YA and 5-year Ave. of 40%.  Spot board crush margins surged another $.19 to $2.17 ½ bu. an 8 month high.  EU soybean imports in the first 4 weeks of the 24/25 MY at 920k mt are down 17% from YA, while meal imports at 1.30 mmt are down less than 1%.  The USDA has raised their soybean yield forecast 7 of the last 10 years.

QST Chart Soybeans 7.30

WHEAT

Prices were lower across all 3 classes today however settled well off the overnight lows.  MGEX and Chicago were $.05-$.07 lower while KC was down $.02-$.03.  Inside day for Sept-24 Chicago.  Sept-24 KC bounced nicely off the new contract lows set overnight.  Sept-24 MGEX held its contract low by $.01.  Continued concern over the quality of the French wheat harvest helped wheat prices recover.  Winter wheat harvest advanced to 82%, slightly behind expectations and just above the 77% from YA and 5-year Ave. of 80%.  Spring ratings dropped 3% to 74% G/E, in line with our expectations vs. the Ave. estimate of down only 1%.  Despite the drop ratings remain the highest since 2018.  1% of the crop is harvested.  Tunisia reportedly bought 50k mt of durum wheat for Aug-Oct shipment at an Ave. price of $324.60/mt CF and 125k mt of soft wheat at an Ave. price of $245.30/mt CF.  EU 24/25 soft wheat exports at 1.85 mmt thru July 28th are down 38% from YA. 

QST Chart Wheat 7.30

Charts provided by QST Charts. 

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