CORN
Prices drifted back to session lows into the close finishing within $.01 of unchanged as spreads widened a bit. Felt like corn was stuck between wheat prices that wanted to rally and the soybean complex that wanted to break. Sept-24 held support above $3.90 and Dec-24 just above its weekly low of $4.03. Rally efforts have been held in check with US farmers still holding just over 3 bil. bu. as of June 1st with record US yields highly probable this year. No export announcements today. This afternoon’s CFTC-COT report is expected to show MM’s still hold a record short position at just over 350k contracts. Much stronger than expected ethanol production and so-so export demand wasn’t enough to trigger speculative short covering. In his acceptance speech last night at the RNC Donald Trump seemed to take more of a swipe at EV’s and the current administrations Green Energy policies than tough trade talk with China. Cattle in feed lots on July 1st were 101% of YA, in line with expectations. Placements in June at 93% were below expectations of 97%, however marketing at 91% were slightly below the 92% expected.

SOYBEANS
The soybean complex drifted into negative territory at midday and never recovered. Most soybean and meal contracts finished near session lows as old crop inverses over new crop contracts widened. Aug-24 beans jumped out to new highs for the week however were not able to get much traction above $11. The session low for Nov-24 beans has been $10.35 ¼ the past 3 sessions as prices consolidate just below $10.50. Aug-24 oil held support at its 100 day MA just above $.46 lb overnight. Inside trade for Aug-24 meal. Spot board crush margins were little changed for the week at $1.56 bu. with BO PV holding just below 41%. US weather remains non-threatening which will serve to cap rallies, particularly corn as the window for a significant weather issue is quickly closing. Rainfall thru early next week to favor the SE and Delta region. Lighter rainfall filling in the WCB and NC Midwest. This morning the USDA announced the sale of 105k mt of 24/25 soybean meal to an unknown buyer, this after yesterday’s 510k mt soybean sale and 150k mt of meal also to an unknown buyer. This afternoon’s CFTC-COT report is expected to show MM’s still hold a record short position at nearly 190k contracts. As usual longer range weather forecasts will likely determine price action Sunday night.

WHEAT
Prices closed $.07-$.10 higher across all 3 classes however well off early session highs. Sept-24 Chicago seemed to have run out of steam after posting new highs for the week. Similar story for KC. Soft wheat conditions in France dropped 5% last week to 52% G/E. Harvest has reached advanced 10% to 14% complete with early results less than encouraging. Comments earlier this week from Germany will likely lead to lower EU production est. The USDA lowered their forecast .5 mmt last week to 130 mmt, already the lowest in 4 years. IKAR lowered their 2024 Russian grain harvest 1.5 mmt to 128 mmt. They also lowered their export forecast .5 mmt to 55 mmt. Russia’s Ag. Ministry slashed their wheat export tariff 13.5% to 1,540.40 roubles/mt for the period ending July 30th. Ukraine has so far harvested 13.8 mmt of grain, or which 10.3 mmt is wheat with 3.1 mmt of barley.

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