Ag Market View for Jan 30.24


Prices were $.06 – $.08 higher today.  After making a new contract low by ¼ cent overnight, Mch-24 closed ¼ cent above yesterday’s high, establishing a key reversal day.  The next resistance is last week’s high of $4.53 ¼ followed by the 50 day MA at $4.69 ¼.  EU 2023/24 corn imports as of Jan. 28th have reached 10.2 mmt, down 41% from YA.  POET LLC, the world’s largest corn based ethanol producer, is teaming up with Summit Carbon Solutions to capture, ship and store carbon dioxide from 17 ethanol facilities.  This brings a total of 51 ethanol plants to partner with Summit.  The goal is to reduce the corn based ethanol industries carbon footprint in order to qualify for Federal tax benefits and be included for production of Sustainable Aviation Fuel.  With the US corn balance sheet in desperate need of higher demand to work off some of the excess supplies, SAF appears exactly what bulls need to see. 

QST corn chart for 1.30.24


The soybean complex turned sharply higher today with beans $.20 – $.24 higher, meal was up $6 – $9, while oil was 25 – 45 higher.  Mch-24 beans traded to a new 7 month low overnight before surging higher posting an outside day up.  Next resistance is last week’s high at $12.47 ½.  Mch-24 oil traded to a new 8 month low overnight, before recovering.  Next resistance for Mch-24 meal is last week’s high at $366.80.  Markets quickly reinserted weather premium as confidence is slipping that needed rains will fall in Argentina over the next 7-10 days.  Crop stress will be on the rise, particularly across southern Buenos Aires and La Pampa as temperatures hold at much above normal readings.  Next chance for widespread beneficial rain is Feb. 7 – 10th, confidence that far out however isn’t particularly high.  Conditions across Brazil remain mostly favorable.  Key usage figures due out later this week with monthly EIA biofuel production, capacity and feedstock usage data tomorrow, while Dec-23 census soybean crush on Thursday.  In addition will used cooking oil continue to cut into bean oil usage.  Oil usage fell to a 6 month low in October, down 16.5% from its peak in July-23.  Crush is expected to come in at a record high of 206 mil. bu., above the existing record of 201.5 mil. from Oct-23.  Estimates range from 204 – 207 mil.   Bean oil stocks are expected to jump 11% from Nov-23 to 1.764 bil. lbs.  Despite the expected build, stocks would still be down 23.5% from YA levels of 2.31 bil. lbs.  Oil stock estimates range from 1.73 – 1.875 bil. lbs.  EU 2023/24 soybean imports as of Jan.28th at 6.8 mmt are down 4% from YA

QST beans chart for 1.30.24


Prices were higher across all 3 classes today with Chicago and KC both $.10 – $.12 higher, while MGEX was up $.06.  Mch-24 Chicago closed just above its 50 & 100 day MA’s at $6.04 ¾.  Next resistance is LW high at $6.17 ¼.  Mch-24 KC closed just above its 50 day MA at $6.29 ¼ with next major resistance at $6.48 ½.  Another round of heavy rains are expected for the US gulf coast and Delta region this weekend.  Good rains are also expected to extend into much of KS and western NE.  A South Korean flour mill has purchased just over 86k mt of various US wheat classes for April/May shipment.  Russian wheat exports in Jan-24 are expected to reach 3.7 mmt, down 13% from YA.  The Russian Govt. also announced they are placing an import quota on seeds from “unfriendly” countries that include Britain, the EU and the US.  A number of US states reported winter wheat crop ratings.  Big rating increases were seen in IL, KN, KY, NE, and ND.  Lower ratings were seen in MT, OK, SD and TX.  10 of the 11 states that reported ratings are in better shape than YA, most much better.  In Kansas, the largest producing state, 54% of the crop is in G/E condition, up 11% from Dec-23 and well above the 21% from YA.

QST wheat chart for 1.30.24

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