Written Commentary
Ag Market View for Feb 14.25
February 14, 2025
CORN
Prices were roughly $.03 lower today while spreads are mixed. The next major resistance for Mch-25 is at $5.08 ¼, the high from last May. Yesterday the BAGE cut their Argentine production forecast 1 mmt to 49 mmt vs. the USDA est. at 51 mmt. Crop ratings plunged with 30% of their crop now rated G/E, down 9% from LW. 28% of the crop is rated poor/VP, compared to 14% LW. Exports at 66 mil. bu. were at the high end of expectations. YTD commitments at 1.650 bil. up 29% from YA, vs. the USDA forecast of up 7%. Current commitments represent 67% of the USDA forecast, above the historical average of 60%. Shipments are up 28%. Noted buyers were S. Korea – 18 mil., Taiwan – 11 mil., while Japan, Mexico and Spain all bought 8-10 mil. Argentina’s corn export tax will be lowered from 12% to 9.5% starting next Monday and extend thru June. Cattle on feed at 11.823 mil. head represents 99% of the YA total and below the range of est. from 99.3-100.8%. Placements at 97% were well below the expected range of 98.8-107.1%. Marketing at 101% were at the low end of expectations. To get prices to extend above $5.00 would likely require Brazilian planting delays to extend well into Feb
SOYBEANS
Prices were mixed with beans $.05-$.10 lower led by old crop, meal was down $8-$10 while oil was up 15-20 points. Spreads were weaker across the complex with nearby meal spreads making new lows. Mch-25 beans did trade below yesterday’s low however quickly recovered. The next significant level of support isn’t until the 100 day MA at $10.22 ¼. Mch-25 meal gapped lower with next support at its 50-day MA just above $300. Inside day for Mch-25 oil as prices held an overnight test of support near $.44 lb. Spot board crush margins slid $.11 to $1.12 ½ while bean oi PV jumped to 42.6%. The BAGE cut their Argentine production forecast 1 mmt to 49.6 mmt vs. the USDA est. at 52 mmt. Crop ratings fell with 22% of their crop rated G/E, down 10% from LW. US bean exports at 55 mil. bu. were in line with expectations and the highest in 7 weeks. YTD commitments at 1.555 bil. are up 11.5% from YA vs. the USDA forecast of up 8%. Commitments represent 85% of the USDA forecast, above the historical average of 81.5%. China/unknown combined to purchase nearly 37 mil. bu. extending commitments to 874 mil. Outstanding sales at 229 mil. are below the 320 mil. from YA. Meal sales at 209k tons were in line with expectations. YTD commitments are up 13% from YA, vs. USDA up 8%. Bean oil sales at 3k mt (6.4 mil. lbs.) were below expectations. YTD commitments at 1.454 bil. lbs. represent 91% of the USDA forecast of 1.60 bil. Argentina’s bean export tax will be lowered from 33% to 26% starting next Monday and extend thru June. The export tax on oil and meal will drop from 31% to 24.5%. Mch-25 bean remain more than $1 above the Dec-24 lows, however US prices remain more than $1 above Brazilian FOB prices.
WHEAT
Prices were $.08-$.11 lower across all 3 classes today. Mch-25 KC held support at its 50 day MA. MGEX traded below its 50 day MA intraday however recovered to close back above it. Nearby spreads in Chicago slipped to new lows. The BAGE maintained their wheat production forecast for their recently harvested crop at 18.6 mmt. Exports at 8 mil. bu. (6 mil. – 2024/25 MY, 2 mil. – 25/26) were at the low end of expectations and bring YTD commitments to 650 mil. bu. up 7% from YA, vs. the USDA forecast of up 20%. Commitments represent 76.5% of the USDA forecast vs. the historical average of 80%. Shipments are up 21%. Argentina’s wheat export tax will be lowered from 12% to 9.5% starting next Monday and extend thru June. Russia also lowered their wheat export tax 5.7% to 4,430 roubles/mt for the period ending Feb. 4th. Better prospects for rain in the southern plains toward the end of January seemed to weigh on wheat prices.
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