Written Commentary
Ag Market View for Jan 24.25
January 24, 2025
CORN
Prices were $.01 – $.02 higher today with bull spreading noted. Mch-24 has clawed back to nearly unchanged for the week. Longer term resistance is at the 50 day MA, currently $4.75. Next support below the market is $4.25. Export sales at 49 mil. bu. were at the high end of expectations and a 5 week high. YTD commitments at 1.241 bil. bu. are up 36% from YA, vs. the USDA forecast of up 26%. The BAGE reports Argentine corn is 93% planted. G/E ratings improved 10% to 46%, while 3% of the crop is rated poor, down 2% for the week. Today’s COF report at 102% from YA was in line with expectations. Placements at 96% were a touch above expectations, while marketing at 99% were in line with expectations. The US average farm price at $4.80 historically seems high with stocks/use ratio currently sitting at just under 15%.
SOYBEANS
Prices were lower across the board today and for the week. Mch-24 beans appear to be trying to build support above $12, next resistance is at $12.50. Mch-24 oil held support above this week’s low of 46.58. While Mch-24 meal held above its recent low at $353.40 it posted its lowest close since July-22. South American weather remains mostly favorable with nearly all of Brazil receiving moisture in the next week to 10 days with higher totals favoring central and northern growing regions. Dry conditions in Argentina is expected to last thru late January which is needed in central growing areas following recent heavy rains. Follow up rains, particularly in Southern BA and La Pampa, will be needed by late Jan/early Feb to minimize crop stress. Spot board crush margins dropped $.18 today to $.87 bu. Export sales at 29 mil. bu. were in line with expectations. YTD commitments at 1.374 bil. bu. are down 18% from YA, vs. the USDA forecast of down 12%. In addition the USDA announced the sale of 297k tons (11 mil. bu.) of soybeans to China. Soybean meal sales at 349k tons were at the high end of expectations. YTD commitments are up 15% from YA, vs. the USDA forecast of up 4%. The BAGE reports Argentine soybeans are 97% planted. G/E ratings improved 4% to 55%, while only 2% of the crop is rated poor, down 1% for the week. Late yesterday AgroConsults slashed their Brazilian production forecast nearly 8 mmt to 153.8 mmt, just below Conab’s est. of 155.3 mmt and the USDA at 157 mmt. They state a record 2.9 mil. HA of soybeans were replanted, or 6.5% of the crop. They also lowered their Chinese import forecast slightly to 100.6 mmt, vs. the USDA est. of 102 mmt. The US average farm price at $12.75 seems consistent with other years with Stocks/use ratio just under 7%.
WHEAT
Prices were higher across all 3 classes today with Chicago and MGEX $.06 – $.08 higher, while KC was up $.02 – $.03. Resistance for Mch-24 Chicago comes in at its 50 and 100 day MA’s at $6.04 ¾ and $6.06 ¾ respectively. Not much resistance for Mch-24 KC until last week’s high at $6.33 ½ which also represents the 50 day MA. Mch-24 MGEX peaked right at $7.00. Adequate snow cover in the US plains and Midwest will likely prevent any damage to winter wheat due to the weekend cold snap. Export sales at 26 mil. bu. were well above expectations. YTD commitments at 592 mil. are up 4% from YA, in line with the USDA forecast. The BAGE reports the Argentine wheat crop is 98% harvested. Earlier today Russia stated that there was no chance of renewing the Black Sea Grain Initiative while warning that alternative routes carry “huge” risks.
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