Ag Market View for Jan 17.24

SOYBEANS

Prices are mostly lower today with beans down $.14 – $.21 with bear spreading noted,  meal was $9 – $12 lower, while oil was up 25 – 45.  Mch-24 beans held support at last week’s low of $12.03 with secondary support at $11.71.  Mch-24 meal had outside day down with next support at $353.  Today’s close was its lowest in 7 months.  Mch-24 oil held above last week’s low at 46.30 before rebounding.  Spot board crush margins were little changed today with oil PV gaining back the 1% it lost yesterday back to 40%.  Weaker than expected economic data from China along with another year of declining population seemed to weigh on commodity valuations.  GDP in China grew only 5.2% in 2023, below expectations for 5.6% growth.  Outside of Covid years this was the slowest growth since 1990.  After not declining since the 1960’s, China’s population fell for a 2^nd consecutive year in 2023.  Population declined 2.08 mil. in 2023 to 1.410 bil., double the decline from 2022.  A Brazilian farm group suggested the USDA and Conab production forecasts at 157 and 155 mmt respectively weren’t in touch with reality given what weather has dealt them.  They believe production will be closer to only 135 mmt.  Most private forecasts are falling between 145 – 155 mmt.  A Canadian analytics company using satellite data seem to be falling in line with the farmer group as they suggest yields in Mato Grosso could drop to a 15 year low.  Production est. for Argentina remain on the rise.  Dec. 1^st beans stocks at 3.0 bil. bu. were 25 mil. above expectations, however down 21 mil. from YA.  Stocks/1^st Qtr. usage however rose to 209%, a 4 year high.  Production among the world’s top 4 exporters at just under 331 mmt was little changed as the lower Brazil production was mostly offset by higher US, Argentina and Paraguay. Stocks/use among the top 4 exports is expected to rebound to 21%, a 5-year high.