Written Commentary
Ag Market View for February 23.2026
February 23, 2026
CORN
Prices were mixed and within $.00 ½ of unchanged in choppy 2 sided trade. Nearby spreads plunged to new lows ahead of Friday’s FND against the Mch-26 contracts. May-26 futures traded to a 6 week high however stopped short of its 100 day MA at $4.46. The BAGE reports Argentine crop ratings improved 8% to 51% G/E while holding their production forecast at 57 mmt, well above the USDA’s est. of 53 mmt. Ag. Rural estimates Brazil’s 1st corn harvest has reached 28% as of Feb. 19th while 2nd crop plantings have reached the halfway point. Plantings in Mato Grosso have reached 66% just below YA at 67% and the long term Ave. of 72%. COF as of Feb. 1st at 11.505 mil. head were down 2% from YA, in line with expectations. Export inspections at 79 mil. bu. were the 2nd highest of the MY and above expectations. YTD inspections at 1.486 bil. are up 46% from YA vs. the USDA forecast of up 16%. Noted buyers were Japan – 17 mil., Mexico – 15 mil. and Korea – 16 mil. The USDA also announced a flash sale of 125k mt (5 mil. bu.) to Colombia.
SOYBEANS
Prices were mixed across the complex with beans ranging from $.03 lower on old crop to $.02 higher on new crop. Meal was down $1.50 while oil closed 50-60 higher. Bean and oil spreads weakened while meal spreads firmed. May-26 beans traded to a fresh 3 month high before pulling back. Next resistance is at the November high of $11.77 ¾. May-26 meal held below Friday’s high. Another wave of speculative buying drove soybean oil prices into new contract highs only to settle back closing near the midpoint of the days range. Spot futures traded above $.60 lbs. for the first time since Oct-26. Overnight weakness was driven by increased trade tensions after Pres. Trump raised import tariffs to 15% over the weekend from the initial 10% announced last Friday. Spot board crush margins improved another $.06 to $1.98, a fresh 6 month high with bean oil PV rebounding to 49%. The BAGE reports Argentine crop ratings improved 1% to 33% G/E, still below the historical average of 42%. 72% of the crop is setting pods or beyond. They held production unchanged at 48.5 mmt, in line with the USDA. Ag. Rural estimates Brazil’s crop is 30% harvested. Harvest in Mato Grosso, their largest production state, has reached 66%, in line with YA and ahead of the long term Ave. of 57%. Friday’s Supreme Court ruling would appear to give the US less leverage ahead of Pres. Trump’s trip to Beijing Mch. 31st thru April 2nd reducing the odds of addition US soybean purchases. Brazilian soybeans remain $1 or more below US offers. Export inspections at 25 mil. bu. were below expectations however above the 23 mil. bu. needed per week to reach the USDA forecast. YTD inspections at 920 mil. are down 32% from YA vs. the USDA forecast of down 16%. China took only 13 mil. while Mexico took 4 mil.
WHEAT
Prices ranged from $.04-$.12 lower with KC futures the downside leader. Spreads are mixed. CGO Mch-26 jumped out to a fresh 7 month high before pulling back. KC Mch-26 weakened as extended forecasts suggest above precipitation for the southern plains. Speculative buying combined with expanded drought has fueled the recent price increase. Ukraine’s grain lobby forecasts their production will rise nearly 3% in 2026 to 23.1 mmt, as higher acres more than offset lower yields. The USDA is forecasting production at 23 mmt. Algeria is seeking 50k mt of optional origin soft wheat for Spring shipment. The tender closes tomorrow. Export inspections at 20 mil. bu. were above expectations and above the 16 mil. bu. needed per week to reach the USDA forecast. YTD inspections at 670 mil. bu. are up 19% from YA, vs. the USDA at up 9%.
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