Written Commentary
Futures Fall as US-China Tensions Reignite
April 24, 2025
CORN
Prices were $.03 – $.05 lower with old crop making new contract lows in late trade. Bears clearly remain in control for now as global supplies remain robust while speculators continue to add to short positions. Recent dryness in Southern Brazil has benefited soybean harvest and 2nd corn plantings. Rains are expected next week. The BAGE reported Argentine corn ratings fell 3% last week to 31% G/E, compared to 20% YA. Fair slipped 1% while poor/VP increased 4% to 15%, still well below the 34% from YA. Ukraine’s Ag. Ministry states that roughly 2 mmt of last year’s corn crop remains unharvested. Despite the USDA lowering their Brazilian production forecast 3 mmt to 124 mmt yesterday, there remains a huge 10.3 mmt disparity between the USDA and Conab production forecasts. The USDA estimates show combined Brazilian and Argentine production a record 179 mmt, well above YA record of 172 mmt.
SOYBEANS
The soybean complex was lower across the board today with beans down $.09 – $.10, oil down 40 – 70, while meal was $1 – $3 lower with bull spreading noted. Mch-24 beans seem to be building support just above this week’s low near $11.79. If violated next major support not until the May-23 low near $11.45. Fresh 2 year low for Mch-24 meal before the rebound. The early strength in Mch-24 oil stalled out just below its 50 day MA at 48.49. For the week spot board crush margins improved $.11 to $.99 ½ bu. with bean oil PV jumping 2% to 40.5%. SA weather remains mostly favorable. Central growing regions of Argentina have already benefited from rains this week. 24 hour rainfall map attached. Showers are expected to fill in over the rest of the country within the next week. Additional prospects for rain in the extended outlook are expected to keep production prospects high. The BAGE reported Argentine soybean ratings fell 5% last week to 31% G/E, compared to 16% YA. Fair slipped 3% while poor/VP increased 8% to 22%, well below the 44% from YA. Safras & Mercado lowered their Brazilian production forecast nearly 9 mmt to 149 mmt, coming in just below the Conab est. of 149.4 mmt. Recall the USDA only lowered their forecast 1 mmt to 156 mmt. Weakening Brazilian basis levels continue to weigh on valuations across the soybean complex. The Brazilian Ag. group ANEC states they are becoming increasingly concerned over the growing number of farm bankruptcies in the SA country.
WHEAT
Prices were mostly higher today however unable to hold early strength. Chicago closed $.04 – $.08 higher, nearly $.10 off session highs. Both KC and MGEX were steady. Chicago Mch-24 briefly traded above yesterday’s high and the 100 MA, however stalled out below this week’s high of $6.06 ¾. Mch-24 KC managed a close above $6.00. Mch-24 MGEX held just above contract lows for the 2nd consecutive session. In the US rains continue to favor the southern plains across the Delta and into the SE. Russia raised their wheat export tax nearly 7% to 4,059 roubles/mt. APK-Inform estimates Ukrainian grain exports as of Feb. 9th have reached 25.2 mmt, below the 28.8 mmt from YA. Ukraine’s Ag. Ministry expects spring acres will be very close to last year’s 12.75 mil. HA’s. While wheat acres were off around 200k HA’s, they felt these could be made up with increased spring wheat plantings. Despite all the perceived bearishness in the market, global stocks/use among major exporters remain at a decade low of 15%.
All charts provided by QST
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