Ag Market View for Feb 6.24


Prices were $.01 – $.04 lower today with bear spreading noted as traders brace for the Goldman roll which is expected to begin tomorrow.  Mch-24 had an outside day down with next support at last week’s contract low of $4.36 ½.  Resistance at last week’s high of $4.53 ¼.  With fresh demand news limited, markets await updated production and stocks data later this week from the USDA, Stats Canada, Conab and the BA Grain Exchange.   No export announcements today as Argentina continues to offer corn just below the US thru the Spring months.  Although US exports and demand for ethanol production remain reasonably strong it’s likely not enough to drive ending stocks below 2.1 bil. bu.  Improved crop prospects for Brazil’s 2nd crop has put a damper on rally attempt’s despite the speculative short position at nearly a 4 year high.  Estimates for tomorrow’s EIA ethanol production report fall in a wide range between 881 – 1,031 tbd, vs. 991 tbd pace from the previous week. 


Prices closed mixed today with beans up $.02 – $.04, meal was $1 – $2 lower, while oil was up 50 – 60.  Resistance for Mch-24 beans is at last week’s high of $12.23.  The rebound in Mch-24 oil stopped just shy of last week’s high at 46.38.  Mch-24 meal seems to be consolidating between last week’s range of $346 – $370.  Much of Brazil remains in a favorable weather pattern.  Much of Argentina will experience another few days of extreme heat.  Highs today range from mid-90’s to low 100’s.  Some scattered showers did fall in Central and Southern Buenos Aires the past 24 hours.  Better prospects for widespread rains this weekend and next week.  Spot board crush margins backed off a touch today to $.95 ¼ bu. and remains historically weak.  While there were no export sales announced, prices benefited from firming basis levels in Brazil as farmers have been reluctant to sell off the combine with storage available at this early stage of harvest.  IMEA lowered their production forecast for Mato Grosso, largest producing state in Brazil, to 38.4 mmt, down .6 mmt from last month and down 15% from YA.  Abiove lowered their production forecast for Brazil by 4.2 mmt to 156.1 mmt, now just below the USDA est. of 157 mmt.  Abiove kept their crush est. at 54.5 mmt, vs. USDA 53.75 mmt, however lowered their export forecast 1.2 mmt to 98.1 mmt, just below the USDA forecast of 99.5 mmt.  Iran is reportedly seeking 120k mt of SA origin soybean meal for Mch/April shipment. 


Prices were slightly higher across all 3 classes today with KC and Chicago up $.03 – $.05, while MGEX was steady to $.02 better.  An inside trading session for Mch-24 KC and Chicago.  Outside of the Delta and SE, little moisture for key growing areas in the US over the next week.  Japan’s Ag. Ministry is seeking 136k mt of US, Canadian, or Australian wheat in a tender that closes on Thursday.  Jordan reportedly bought 60k mt of hard milling grade wheat for $263/mt CF for late April shipment.  Their tender was for 120k mt of wheat.  Tunisia is seeking 100k mt of optional origin durum wheat for Mch/April shipment.  Their tender closes tomorrow.  Turkey’s Foreign Minister states their countries President will meet with Russian Pres. Putin next Monday to discuss the war with Ukraine and the Black Sea Grain deal.  Texas reported WW crop rating improved 4% to 46% G/E.  17% of the crop is headed, vs. YA and 5-year Ave. of 7%.     

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