Written Commentary
Ag Market View for July 26.24
July 26, 2024
WHEAT
Chicago wheat traded futures ended higher despite March deliveries more than expected. Lower Russia export prices offers resistance. Weekly US export sales were near 327 mt. KWK found resistance near 5.88, MWH near 6.60. Australia futures continue to trend lower. Matif March futures made new contract lows. Ukraine plus Russia Feb exports are est near a record 6.5 mmt. USDA est US 2023/24 wheat carryout near 658 mil bu with exports est near 725 and food use 960. Some est US 2024/25 carryout near 690 with exports 825 and food use 979.
CORN
Corn futures ended higher. CK is near 4.30 and could test last weeks high near 4.34. Trade above 4.34 could start a long process of Managed funds liquidating their record short. There is talk of increase China demand for Ukraine corn. Despite a record corn crop, Sino Grain has been given the green light to add to reserves. Weekly US corn export sales were 1,080 mt. Mexico and Japan were best buyers. Ukraine corn is offered near $171 versus US $190. Crude rallied on talk of higher China demand. USDA est US 2023/24 corn carryout near 2,172 mil bu with exports est near 2,100, feed use 5,675 and ethanol 5,375. Some est US 2024/25 carryout near 2,885 with exports 2,100, feed use 5,800 and ethanol 5,450.
SOYBEANS
Soybean were lower. Soymeal futures were higher. There continues to be unconfirmed talk that US may control the imports of used China cooking oil and Canada RSO for renewable fuel production. Abiove est Brazil soybean crop at 153.8 mmt vs 156.1 previous and 159 ly. Brazil exports were est at 97.8 mmt vs 98.1 previous and 101.8 ly. Brazil farmers slowed cash sales. Brazil soybean export prices are still lower than US. Jan US soybean crush is expected to be a new record for January. Most doubt USDA will make much changes to US 2023/24 soybean carryout in March but could increase crush and lower exports equal amount. Weekly US soybean export sales were 159 mt with 392 mt cancelled from unknown. USDA est US 2023/24 soybean carryout near 315 mil bu with exports est near 1,720 and crush 2,300. Some est US 2024/25 carryout near 410 with exports 1,830 and crush 2,470.
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