Written Commentary
Ag Market View for July 26.24
July 26, 2024
CORN
Corn futures ended slightly lower on low volume and in a narrow range. Managed funds continue to add to net short position. Rains in Argentina and talk of higher Ukraine corn exports offers resistance. Fact US farmer is a slow seller of cash at these lower prices offers support. Weekly US export sales were higher than expected and near 47 mil bu. Total commit is near 1,326 mil bu vs 1,009 last year. USDA goal is near 2,100 vs 1,661 last year. Japan, S Korea and Mexico were best buyers. One crop group increased their estimate of Argentina corn crop 4.5 mmt to 57 vs USDA 55. They also increased China crop 11.4 mmt due to higher planted acres. USDA est US 2023/24 corn carryout at 2,162 mil bu vs 1,360 last year. Some could see final export demand 100 mil bu lower and carryout 100 mil bu higher. Trade est US 2024 corn acres to drop to 93.0 but higher supply could increase US 2024/25 carryout to 2,925.
SOYBEANS
Soybean and soymeal futures ended lower. Weekly US soybean sales were only 6 mil bu. This included are a large cancellation in unknown. US export commit is near 1,400 mil bu vs 1,731 last year. USDA goal is 1,755 vs 1,992 last year. There is also liquidation due to forecast of rains across Argentina crop areas next week. Some feel normal South America 2024 crops and reduced China soybean export demand could pull nearby soybean futures down closer to 11.00. Weekly US soymeal export sales were better than expected. This may be due to drop in 2023 Argentina soybean crop and reduced soymeal exports. Total commit is near 8.3 mmt vs 7.0 last year. 6 countries including Mexico and Philippines were best buyers. One crop group lowered their estimate of Brazil soybean crop 3 mmt to 153 vs USDA 157. Trade est US 2024 soybean acres to increase to 85.5 and higher supply could increase US 2024/25 carryout to 378.
WHEAT
Wheat futures ended mixed. WH ended up 5 cents and near 6.01. KWH is down 1 cent and near 6.21. MWH is up 4 cents and near 6.96. One crop group increased their estimate of Russia wheat crop 2.2 mmt to 90.2 vs USDA 91, increased Australia wheat crop 1.5 mmt to 27 vs USDA 25.5 and dropped EU 2024 wheat crop 3.1 mmt to 133.7 vs USDA 134.3. Weekly US wheat sales were 11 mil bu. US export commit is near 620 mil bu vs 594 last year. USDA goal is 725 vs 759 last year. WH has been trading mostly sideways since October with one bounce after China bought US SRW. KWH has been trading mostly sideways since early December. High US HRW crop ratings versus lower US 2024 acres.
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