Written Commentary
Ag Market View for December 10.2025
December 10, 2025
CORN
Prices were $.02-$.04 lower unable to capitalize on yesterday’s higher close. Spreads leaned a bit lower. Inside trade for Mch-26 as it continues to consolidate near its 50 day MA at $4.44 ¾. Could very well hold in its $4.35-$4.55 range into year end. Ethanol production slipped to 325 mil. gallons in the week ended Fri. Dec. 5th down from a record high 331 mil. the previous week while up 2.5% from YA. Production was in line with expectations. There was 110 mil. bu. of corn used in the production process, or 15.7 mil. bu. per day, above the 15.3 mbd needed to reach USDA 5.60 bil. forecast. Corn used for the production of ethanol in Sept-25 came in at 435.4 mil. bu. while increasing to 476.4 mil. in Oct-25. Cumulative usage in the first 2 months of the 25/26 MY at 912 mil. bu. is slightly above the 911 mil. from YA. No change in the USDA corn usage est. yesterday holding at 5.60 bil. bu.
SOYBEANS
Prices were mixed in 2 sided trade as beans were up $.01-$.04, meal was steady to $1 lower while oil was up 10 points. Bean and meal spreads firmed while oil spreads were steady to slightly weaker. Jan-26 beans recovered after slipping to a fresh 6 week low in overnight trade. Next support on the chart is the gap from October between $10.63-$10.70. Jan-26 meal recovered after dipping below $300 ton for the first time in 6 weeks however was not able to avoid a 9th consecutive lower close. Jan-26 oil continues to consolidate around its 50 day MA. The USDA announced flash sales of 136k mt (5 mil. bu.) to China, a total of 331k mt (12 mil. bu.) to unknown and 120k mt of meal to Poland. Census soybean crush in Sept. came in at 207 mil. bu. was followed by a record 237 mil. in Oct. Cumulative crush in the first 2 months of the 2025/26 MY at 442 mil. bu. is up 10% from YA, vs. the USDA forecast of up 4.5%. To reach the current USDA forecast crush will need to reach 2.113 bil. bu. over the last 10 months of the MY vs. 2.042 bil. YA. NOPA crush for Nov-25 will be out next Monday. Bean oil stocks rose slightly to 1.782 bil. lbs. above expectations of 1.717 bil. and up 12% YOY.
WHEAT
Prices finished $.01-$.05 lower across the 3 classes today rebounding off session lows. Mch-26 CGO fell back to a 6 week low with next support at the contract low of $5.08 ½. Both KC and MIAX Mch-26 futures held above this month’s low. Tunisia is tendering for 100k mt of optional origin durum and 125k mt of optional origin soft milling grade wheat in a tender that expires tomorrow. Thailand has reportedly bought 60k mt of feed grade wheat just below $236/mt CF for Jan shipment. US stocks at 901 mil. bu. remain at a 6 year high. With global inventories on the rise it would appear little reason for prices to rally unless the war in Ukraine starts disrupting the flow of grain from the Black Sea region.
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