Ag Market View for Dec 9.22

SOYBEANS

Soybeans and soyoil futures ended lower. Soymeal ended higher. Massive liquidation of oil share continues to offer support to soymeal. BOH traded below 60 cents. SMH made new high near 467. Soybean futures supported by liquidation of soyoil-soymeal spread and dry Argentina weather. USDA made little changes in the US/World supply and demand. USDA continues to est World soybean crop at 391.1 mmt vs 355.6 ly. Brazil is at 152.0 vs 127.0 ly. Argentina is at 49.5 vs 43.9 ly. USDA est World soybean trade at 169.3 mmt vs 153.2 ly. Brazil 89.5 vs 79.1 ly. US 55.6 vs 58.7. World soybean end stocks are still 102.7 mmt vs 95.6 ly. USDA left US crush at 2,245 vs 2,204 ly and exports at 2,045 vs 2,158. Some feel exports could be lower and final carryout higher. Numbers suggest SH could be near the upper end of a trading range.

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CORN

Corn futures ended higher. Could have been some short covering post USDA report. USDA made a few changes to the US/World corn supply and demand. USDA est World corn crop at 1,161.8 mmt vs 1,216.8 ly. Brazil is at 126.0 vs 116.0.0 ly. Argentina is at 55.0 vs 51.5 ly. Ukraine corn crop was lowered to 27.0 vs 42.1 ly. USDA est World corn trade at 181.6 mmt vs 202.5 ly. Brazil 47.0 vs 44.5 ly. Argentina 41.0 vs 36.5 ly. Ukraine 17.5 vs 10.9. US 52.7 vs 62.7 World corn end stocks are 298.4 mmt vs 307.1 ly. USDA left US feed/residual at 5,300 vs 5,717 ly, ethanol 5,275 vs 5,326 ly and dropped exports to 2,075 vs 2,471 ly. This leaves carryout at 1,257 vs 1,182 in November and 1,377 ly. Numbers suggest CH could be in a 6.25-6.75 range until more is known about Argentina weather and demand for US exports. 6.44 CH and 6.40  CN suggest tight old crop domestic supply and good domestic demand. CZ23 near 5.93 suggest a good 2023 US corn supply could exceed demand. Some feel higher acres and trend yield could drop CZ closer to 5.20. USDA continues to est China corn crop at 274.0 mmt vs 272.5 ly, domestic use at 295.0 vs 291.0 ly and imports at 18.0 vs 21.9 ly. USDA raised EU corn imports to 21.5 and dropped Mexico to 17.2.

WHEAT

Wheat futures ended lower. USDA left US wheat supply and demand unchanged from November. USDA est World wheat crop at 780.5 mmt vs 779.3 ly. World crop less China is 642.5 vs 642.4 ly. EU is at 134.3 vs 138.2 ly. EU exports were raised to 36.0. mmt.  Argentina crop is 12.5 vs 22.1 ly. Russia wheat crop remains near 91.0 vs 75.1 ly. Australia crop was raised to 36.6 vs 36.3 ly. USDA est World wheat trade at 201.8 mmt vs 201.9 ly. Australia exports were raised to 27.5. Argentina was lowered to 7.5 vs 16.2 ly. US 21.1 vs 21.8 ly. World wheat end stocks are 267.3 mmt vs 276.2 ly. USDA left US feed/residual at 50 vs 88 ly, food 977 vs 972 ly and exports at 775 vs 800 ly. This leaves carryout at 571 vs 669 ly. Numbers suggest WH could be in a 7.00-7.75 range until more is known about north hemisphere weather and demand for US exports.

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