Ag Market View for Dec 8.22
Soybean, soymeal and soyoil futures ended higher. Higher soybean and soymeal trade is linked to dry Argentina weather and better than expected US soybean export sales. Some analyst are suggesting that soybean futures could continue higher due to Argentina dryness. Last year at the time SH was near 12.30 and rallied to a high of 15.69 due to lower US and South America crops. Weekly US soybean were 63 mil bu. Total commit is near 1,428 vs 1,423 last year. There was also 30 mil bu announced to unknown and China. USDA report tomorrow. Trade est US 2022/23 soybean carryout near 238 mil bu vs USDA Nov 220. Conab est their crop at 153.5 mil bu vs USDA 152.0. USDA est Argentina crop at 49.5. This past week, there were some est closer to 45. USDA est China imports at 98 mmt vs 91.5 ly. Oct-Nov imports are running 15 pct behind last year.
Corn futures closed slightly higher. Dry Argentina weather is offering support. Weak demand for US exports and concern about lower Ethanol demand offers resistance. Some analyst are suggesting that corn futures could continue lower due to slow demand for US export last year at the time CH was near 5.48 and rallied to a high of 7.68 due to lower US and South America crops. Weekly US corn were 27 mil bu. Total commit is near 749 vs 1,439 last year. USDA report tomorrow. Trade est US 2022/23 corn carryout near 1,237 mil bu vs USDA Nov 1,182. Conab est their crop at 125.8 mil bu vs USDA 126.0 and 116.0 last year. USDA est Argentina crop at 55.0 vs 51.5 last year. Only 25 pct of Argentina crop is planted. USDA est Ukraine crop at 31.5 mmr vs 42.1 last year. They est Ukraine corn exports at 15.5 vs 27.0 last year. Some feel if war is still fighting in May as much as half of the corn crop may get planted. End of the war could see increase acres planted.
Wheat futures ended mixed. Slow export demand offers resistance. USDA report tomorrow. USDA is not expected to make many wheat changes tomorrow. WH ended near 7.46 with a range of 7.37-7.55.KWH ended near 8.46 with range of 8.31-8.52. MWH ended near 9.09 with range 8.94-9.11. Last year, WH was near 5.48 and rallied to a high of 12.73 due to lower Russia crop and Ukraine war. WH dropped to an August low near 7.60 on talk of lower World trade.. Weekly US wheat export sales were 7 mil bu. Total commit is near 501 vs 535 last year. USDA report tomorrow. Trade est US 2022/23 wheat carryout near 576 mil bu vs USDA Nov 571. USDA est Russia crop at 91 mmt vs 75 ly .Crop could be 100 mmt. Argentina is est near 15.5 vs 22.1 ly crop could be closer to 10 mmt. There is talk that Egypt bought 260 mt of wheat in a private tender.
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