Ag Market View for Dec 22.23


Prices was steady to $.01 higher in two sided trade.  It was an inside trading session for Mch-24 after being unable to penetrate yesterday’s high at $4.74.  Support is at this week’s low (and contract low) of $4.68 ¼.  Longer term support at $4.47.  Resistance is at the 50 day MA at $4.88 ¼ , followed by the 100 day MA at $4.94 ¼.  Dec-24 corn continues to consolidate just above $5.00.  Healthy rains are expected across much of our nation’s midsection over the Holiday weekend helping ease drought conditions.  There were no export announcements today.  The BAGE reports Argentine corn plantings advanced 10% to 59% complete, with the majority of their crop rated neutral or better.  This afternoon Union Pacific was told by Govt officials the 2 railroad crossings in Texas border towns with Mexico would reopen this afternoon after being closed for nearly a week.  COF as of Dec. 1st at 103% of YA was slightly above expectations of 102%.  Placements at 98% were above expectations of 96% while marketings at 93% were in line with expectations.  Despite decent exports and a recent surge in ethanol production corn prices have remained on a sideways to lower trajectory. 

Corn chart 12.22.23


The soybean complex was mixed with beans $.03 – $.05 higher, meal was up $3 – $4, while oil was 20 – 50 lower.  Jan-24 beans held another test of the December low at $12.92 before rebounding back to $13.  Jan-24 meal traded to a new 2 month low before reversing to close higher.  Jan-24 oil violated support at the November low of 48.53 closing at nearly a 7 month low.  Spot board crush margins fell $.13 this week to $1.13 ¼ bu. a 6 month low.  Heaviest rains so far this week have favored NC growing areas in Goias eastward into northern Minas Gerais and Bahia.  Lighter amounts in Mato Grosso and MGDS.  Longer range forecasts also suggest daily chances for scattered rains into week 2 of the outlook.  How these rains events lay out is likely to be erratic.  Weather across southern Brazil and Argentina to remain mostly favorable with a good mix of rain and sunshine.  The BAGE reports Argentina’s soybean plantings advanced 10% last week to 69% complete.  Ratings improved 7% to 37% G/E, fair slipped 6% to 60%, while poor/VP fell 1% to 3%.  ABIOVE lowered their Brazilian production forecast 1.6 mmt to 160.3 mmt, above most other estimates this week and very near Conab’s est. of 160.2 mmt.  The USDA forecast is 161 mmt.  ABIOVE also lowered lowered their export forecast by nearly 1 mmt to 99.3 mmt, very close to the USDA forecast of 99.5 mmt, while holding their Brazilian crush forecast steady at 54.5 mmt.

Bean chart 12.22.23


Prices are mixed today with Chicago $.02 – $.04 higher, MGEX was steady to slightly lower, while KC was down $.02 – $.04.  Mch-24 Chicago is in a pennant formation as it clings to its 100 day MA at $6.17 ¼.  Support is at the 50 day MA, $6.03 ¼, with resistance at this week’s high of $6.32.  Mch-24 KC continues to consolidate near $6.25.  KC Mch-24 spread over Chicago Mch-24 fell to a new low for the recent move at only $.06 ¾.  The BAGE reports wheat harvest advanced 10% to 65% complete.  A lot of small pending tenders with Bangladesh seeking 50k mt of milling wheat, Jordan looking for 120k mt of optional origin milling wheat, and Pakistan seeking 110k mt of optional origin wheat for Feb-24 shipment.  Russia lowered their wheat export tax 4.7% to 3,860 roubles/mt.   

Wheat chart 12.22.23

See more market commentary here.

Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.

ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.                  

A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.

© 2021 ADM Investor Services International Limited.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone.  Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.  The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM.  The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared.  The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets.  However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.

Latest News & Market Commentary

Explore the latest edition of The Ghost in the Machine

Explore Now