Written Commentary
Ag Market View for July 26.24
July 26, 2024
SOYBEANS
Soybeans ended lower. Soyoil closed done the daily limit. Synthetic is trading down another 108 points. Weekly US soybean exports were near 25 mil bu. Season to date exports are 1,370 mil vs 1,365 ly. Some feel USDA could eventually lower US exports 50-100 mil bu. Brazil weather is favorable with crop estimates now above USDA 152 mmt. This offsets concern about dry Argentina weather. Wire services are beginning to ask analysts for estimates for USDA December supply and demand report. Some could see US soybean exports at 1,980 mil bu with a carryout of 280 vs USDA 220. One crop watcher estimates Brazil 2023 soybean crop at 151 mmt. Most are now above USDA 152. Same crop watcher estimates Argentina crop at 49 mmt vs USDA 49.5.
CORN
Corn futures are lower. EPA biofuel mandate was disappointing. Weekly US corn exports were near 24 mil bu. Season to date exports are 722 mil vs 1,394 ly. Some feel USDA could eventually lower US exports 100-150 mil bu. Brazil weather is favorable. This offsets concern about dry Argentina weather. Ukraine continues to ship corn. Increase US ethanol stocks could suggest lower gas demand. US Nov job growth dropped 47 pct from Oct. Wire services are beginning to ask analyst for estimates for USDA December supply and demand report. Some could see US soybean exports at 2,000 mil bu with a carryout of 1,250 vs USDA 1,182. One crop watcher estimates Brazil 2023 corn crop at 125 mmt. Same crop watcher estimates Argentina crop at 49 mmt vs USDA 55. China demand for raw material imports could slowly decline annually. Another group of ex US Ag Secretary’s will soon meet to discuss continued drop in US grain export share of World trade due to competition from Black Sea and South America.
WHEAT
Wheat futures ended lower. New month, same old news. Lower Russia export prices continues to offer resistance to US wheat futures. Weekly US wheat exports were near 5 mil bu. Season to date exports are 494 mil vs 526 ly. Some feel USDA could eventually lower US exports 20-30 mil bu. US south plains weather forecast is dry. This offers underlying support to KC futures. LA, AR, MS, TN and KY could see heavy rains and local flooding next Mon-Wed. USDA is estimating Russia crop at 91 mmt. Some are closer to 100. USDA also estimates Russia exports at 42 mmt, Some could see 45 or higher. USDA estimates Argentina crop at 15.5. Some are closer to 10.0.They est Argentina exports at 10. Could be closer to 5. EU exports are estimate at 35. Some could see higher.
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