Written Commentary
Ag Market View for July 26.24
July 26, 2024
SOYBEANS
Soybean futures ended slightly higher. SX is near 13.09. Support is 12.90 and resistance is near 13.33. Soyoil gained on soymeal on spread liquidation before Fridays USDA report. There is much uncertainty over USDA soybean yield. Trade range 50.5 to 52.0 versus USDA 52.0. Also on Friday, FSA will release its first report on US farm program enrollment acres. USDA announced another 251 mt of US soybean new crop sales to China More talk that China could import 105 mmt soybean vs USDA estimate of 99. Trade estimates new crop US soybean export sales near 300-1,500 mt vs 2,630 last week. Noon GFS weather forecast is a little wetter in parts of west Midwest. Best rains are forecasted for IN and OH. There is talk of a dome of high pressure across US southwest that could slip into US Midwest for a few days around August 20.
CORN
Corn futures ended slightly lower. CZ is near 4.96. Support is 4.80 and resistance is near 5.20. Fridays USDA report. There is much uncertainty over USDA corn yield. Trade range 172.4 to 178.0 versus USDA 177.5.0. Also on Friday, FSA will release its first report on US farm program enrollment acres. There is new talk that China could import 25 mmt corn vs USDA estimate of 23. Trade estimates new crop US corn export sales near 200-600 mt vs 348 last week. Noon GFS weather forecast is a little wetter in parts of west Midwest. Best rains are forecasted for IN and OH. There is talk of a dome of high pressure US southwest that could slip into US Midwest for a few days around August 20.Weekly US ethanol production was down from last week with stocks down from last year. Margins remain positive with farmer cash sales below average. Crude oil rallied on talk of increase tension between Iran and Afghanistan Taliban due to water dispute.
WHEAT
Wheat futures ended lower. There was some long liquidation after WZ failed to trade over key resistance. Still hard to trade wheat near current values. Bulls are hoping for USDA lowers Canada, EU, Black Sea and Argentina wheat supplies. Bears remain in control due to lower World wheat import demand and higher Russia share of World exports. There were rumors that China may have bought 2 US HRW cargoes. Some are either taking off risk or adding to wheat short before USDA report and given some weakness in US stocks, higher US Dollar and drop in commodity prices. Trade estimates US wheat export sales near 200-500 mt vs 421 last week Range of trade guess for US wheat crop is 1,710 to 1,775 with an average of 1,739 vs 1,739 last week.
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