Written Commentary
Ag Market View for July 26.24
July 26, 2024
SOYBEANS
Soybean futures ended higher. Trade opened lower and traded lower after low weekly US soybean exports and higher US crop rating. Trade is oversold and could have triggered some short covering before USDA report. There was talk that some end users may have added to coverage near session lows. Some doubt that Fridays USDA report will satisfy either the bulls or the bears. Some are looking for more long liquidation into the end of August if US Midwest weather is mostly normal and USDA fails to lower US 2023/24 soybean carryout. Ukraine President indicated Ukraine will attack Russia vessels and Russia ports justified after Russia attacked Ukraine ports and grain silos. Trade estimates US 2023 soybean crop near 4,246 mil bu with range of 4,173 to 4,300. Trade est US 2022/23 soybean carryout at 251 vs 255 previous. 2023/24 267 versus 300 previous.
CORN
Corn futures ended higher. Trade opened lower and traded lower after low weekly US corn exports and higher US crop rating. Trade is oversold and could have triggered some short covering before USDA report. There was talk that some end users may have added to coverage near session lows. Some doubt that Fridays USDA report will satisfy either the bulls or the bears. Some are looking for more selling into the end of August if US Midwest weather is mostly normal and USDA fails to lower US 2023/24 corn carryout. Ukraine President indicated Ukraine will attack Russia vessels and Russia ports justified after Russia attacked Ukraine ports and grain silos. Trade estimates US 2023 corn crop near 15,135 mil bu with range of 14,885 to 15,361. This assumes a 175.5 yield. There was on climatologist suggesting final yield could be closer to 184.0. Trade est US 2022/23 corn at 1,410 vs 1,402 previous. 2023/24 2,168 versus 2,262 previous.
WHEAT
Wheat futures ended mixed. MWU ended up 7 cents. KWU up 2 cents and WU unchanged. MWU rallied after USDA lowered US spring wheat crop ratings. Some feel USDA could be 2-3 bpa could be too high for conditions. There is also talk that Canada crop could be down closer to 29 mmt. There remains talk that Australia, Argentina, EU, and Black Sea crops could be lower than USDA estimate. US wheat export to date remain below pace to reach USDA goal. Ukraine President indicated Ukraine will attack Russia vessels and Russia ports justified after Russia attacked Ukraine ports and grain silos. Trade estimates US 2023 wheat crop near 1,739 mil bu versus 1,739 previous. Trade est US 2023/24 598 versus 592 previous.
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