Written Commentary
Ag Market View for July 26.24
July 26, 2024
SOYBEANS
Soybean futures traded lower following good weekend rains across key parts of the US Midwest. Daily volume has been reduced due to rains and before USDA report. Some feel rains could increase from some who were trading 50.5 bpa to 51.0. Trade estimates US weekly soybean crop ratings will increase 1 pct to 53 G/E vs 52 last week. Weekly US soybean export were 10 mil bu vs 32 last year. Season to date exports are 1,866 mil bu vs 2,004 last year. USDA goal is 1,980 versus 2,152 last year. Some could see final exports 20-40 mil bu lower. There remains talk that Argentina has reduced soybean imports from Brazil. They may be hoping farmers will increase cash sales for crush. Some still feel lower Argentina crush will reduce their soymeal exports and increase US. USDA announced 132 mt new soybean sales to China. Some feel now, China may import a total of 105 mmt versus USDA 99 mmt.
CORN
Corn futures traded lower following good weekend rains across key parts of the US Midwest. Daily volume has been reduced due to rains and before USDA report. Some feel rains could keep US corn yield near 177. Trade estimates US weekly corn crop ratings will increase 1 pct to 56 G/E vs 55 last week. Weekly US corn export were 14 mil bu vs 21 last year. Season to date exports are 1,385 mil bu vs 2,068 last year. USDA goal is 1,650 versus 2,472 last year. Some could see final exports 50 mil bu lower. There remains active Brazil corn exports in place of US. USDA announced 251 mt new corn sales to Mexico. Managed funds were net sellers of 8,000 corn contracts. There is talk that US farmers may try to store as much 2023 corn harvest as they can. Some also feel that seasonally corn futures try to make a bottom August 1. If farmers do store, cash basis should firm which could then firm futures.
WHEAT
Wheat futures traded higher after increase Black Sea tension. Trade estimates US weekly spring wheat crop ratings will remain near 42 pct G/E. Weekly US wheat export were 10 mil bu vs 23 last year. Season to date exports are 111 mil bu vs 129 last year. USDA goal is 725 versus 759 last year. Managed funds were net buyers of 5,000 wheat contracts. Some fear that if there is a US government shutdown in October futures USDA reports may not be released.
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