Ag Market View for Aug 25.23


The soybean complex was higher across the board with beans up $.12 – $.15, meal steady to up $2, while oil was 100 – 120 higher.  Nov-23 reached a new monthly high as additional weather premium was added.  Next resistance is $14, followed by the July high at $14.35.  Oct-23 meal reached a new monthly high, stopping just short of resistance at $420.  Next resistance for Oct-23 oil is this month’s high at 67.15.  With fresh news scarce the market was largely driven by technical factors and the need for additional weather premium.  As temperatures cooled across the Midwest there were isolated pockets of rain that formed around the high pressure ridge in the past 24 hours.  There is still little to no meaningful rain thru the end of the month in major production areas.   After the close Pro Farmer forecast US bean production at 4.110 bil., 95 mil. below the Aug-23 USDA with an average yield of 49.7 bpa.  The USDA reported the sale of 121k tons (4.5 mil. bu.) to China.  Egypt’s GASC bought 124k mt of vegetable oil in today’s tender which included 15k mt of soybean oil priced at $1,010/mt and 109k mt of sunflower oil which sold for $970/mt. 

Old Glory on a barn


Prices tailed off late, closing mixed for the session.  An inside trading day for Dec-23 as it settled near the midpoint of this week’s range.  The BAGE held their Argentine production forecast steady at 34 mmt while harvest has advanced to 97% complete.  Canada stated that they have joined the US is their dispute with Mexico regarding Mexico’s proposed ban on GMO corn imports.  Russia lowered their corn export tax to 1,932 roubles/mt, down from 2,495.  After the close Pro Farmer forecast US corn production at 14.960 bil., 151 mil. below the Aug-23 USDA with an average yield of 172 bpa.


Prices were mixed with MGEX and KC up $.01 – $.03, while Chicago was $.08 – $.10 lower.  Dec-23 Chicago held support above $6.12.  Dec-23 KC made a new weekly high before pulling back.  An inside trading session for Dec-23 MGEX as prices consolidate near $8.  Russia lowered their export tax to 3,729 roubles per mt from 4,270 for the period ending Sept 5th.  Taiwan bought 104k mt of US milling wheat at various prices for Oct shipment.  Russian Pres. Putin and the Turkish leader are scheduled to have an in person meeting soon to discuss a variety of issues including Russia’s possible return to the Black Sea Grain Initiative.  Domestic wheat prices in India continue to surge despite talks of 7-9 mmt imports from Russia via direct govt-to-govt negotiations.  Today a US State Dept official said they believe there are viable overland and territorial water routes for Ukrainian grain exports.     

See more market commentary here.

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