Written Commentary
Ag Market View for July 26.24
July 26, 2024
SOYBEANS
Soybean futures ended higher. SX is near 13.18 S. There is much uncertainty over USDA soybean yield. Trade range 50.5 to 52.0 versus USDA 52.0. Also on Friday, FSA will release its first report on US farm program enrollment acres. USDA could also revise US soybean acres with some looking for higher acres. New crop US soybean export sales were near 1,100 mt with China taking 753 mt. Total old crop commit is 53.1 mmt vs 59.4 last year. USDA goal is 53.9 mmt vs 58.5 ly. New crop soymeal sales were 285 mt. New crop sales are near 1.5 mmt. Argentina estimated 2024 soybean crop near 48 mmt vs 20 this year. Argentina remains dry. Soyoil supported by talk of higher US demand. Palmoil prices continue to trend lower. Soymeal prices support by talk of higher US export demand and lower Argentina exports.
CORN
Corn futures ended slightly higher. CZ is near 4.96. There is much uncertainty over USDA corn yield. Trade range 172.4 to 178.0 versus USDA 177.5.0. New crop sales were 758 mt. Mexico and unknown were best buyers. Total commit is 40.3 mmt vs 60.8 last year. USDA goal is 41.9 vs 62.8 last year. Also on Friday, FSA will release its first report on US farm program enrollment acres. There is new talk that China could import 25 mmt corn vs USDA estimate of 23. Weekly US ethanol production was down from last week with stocks down from last year. Margins remain positive with farmer cash sales below average. Crude oil dropped on talk of lower demand and higher US Dollar. Argentina estimated 2024 corn crop near 56 mmt vs 34 this year. Argentina remains dry. Corn futures remain near season lows on talk of higher US supply and lower demand. US farmer remains a slow seller of both old crop and new crop supply.
WHEAT
Wheat futures ended higher. There may have been some evening up before tomorrow’s USDA report. Bulls are hoping for USDA lowers Canada, EU, Black Sea and Argentina wheat supplies. Bears remain in control due to lower World wheat import demand and higher Russia share of World exports. US wheat export sales were near 567 mt with Japan and Philippines best buyers. Total commit is near 6.4 mmt vs vs 8.6 last year. USDA goal is 19.7 vs 20.6 ly. World trade is estimated at 211.6 vs 216.2 ly. Range of trade guess for US wheat crop is 1,710 to 1,775 with an average of 1,739 vs 1,739 last month. Ukraine Navy is offering temporary trade corridor in 3 ports in the war zone. Russia still claims that commercial vessels heading into Ukraine ports are targets.
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