Written Commentary
Ag Market View for May 20.25
May 20, 2025
CORN
Prices were down $.03-$.06 in choppy trade. Although May/July widened out to $.08 ahead of FND on Wednesday, most spreads were firmer. Early trade saw July-25 briefly pierce its 100 day MA support at $4.78 ¾. July/Dec traded back up to $.34 today. Tonight brings the possibility for heavy rain and damaging storms across the N. Midwest and portions of the Southern and SE plains. Last week money managers were net sellers of nearly 12k contracts of corn cutting their long position to just under 113k. Index funds were net buyers of just over 4k contracts. Export inspections at 65 mil. bu. were at the high end of expectations and well above the 45 mil. bu. needed to reach the USDA forecast of 2.550 bil. bu. Last week’s inspections were revised up 1 mil. bring YTD to 1.610 bil. up 29% from YA vs. the USDA forecast of up 11%. Largest takers were Mexico – 18 mil., and Japan – 15 mil. Mexico says they are boosting efforts to control damage from the screwworm pest following threats from the Trump Administration that we would restrict livestock imports from Mexico.
SOYBEANS
Prices were mixed today with soybeans ranging from $.03 higher in old crop to $.01 lower in new crop. Meal was $2-$3 lower while oil was up 65 points. Spreads were mixed in beans and oil while weaker in meal. Several meal spreads widened to new lows. July-25 beans recovered from early losses. Resistance is at Friday’s 2 month high at $10.67 ½ with support at the 100 day MA at $10.40 ½. July-25 oil rebounded back above $.50 lb. following Friday’s technical correction. Today’s range in July-25 meal was nearly identical to Friday’s range. Support is at the contract low just below $290. Spot board crush margins slipped $.02 to $1.28 ½ bu. with bean oil PV jumped back up to 46.5%. Much needed rains have moved across portions of the northern plains and NW Midwest overnight bringing some relief following weeks of expanding drought readings. Heaviest rains over the weekend were in the Southern plains, with some isolated pocket of heavy precipitation across the S. Midwest. The US/China trade war rolls on, as does the confusion. Is the Trump Administration talking with members of a Chinese trade negotiating team ? Depends on who you ask. Pres. Trump and USDA Ag. Sec. Rollins maintain talks are ongoing, while Treasury Sec. Bessent indicates trade talks have not started. Export inspections at 16 mil. bu. were in line with expectations and well above the 4.5 mil. needed per week to reach the USDA forecast of 1.825 bil. bu. YTD inspections at 1.584 bil. are up 11% from YA vs. USDA forecast of up 8%. China took 7.5 mil. bu. while Mexico and Germany took just over 2 mil. each. MM’s were net buyers of nearly 5k soybeans, 10k bean oil while selling nearly 4k meal. They are now long just over 31k beans, nearly 51k oil and short 73.5k meal.
WHEAT
Prices range from $.08 – $.15 lower across the 3 classes today. New contract lows for CGO and KC while MGEX July-25 drifted to a fresh 3 week low. Spot KC held above its Dec-24 low at $5.19 ¾. Spot CGO fell to an 8 month low with next support at $4.93 ½, the Aug-24 low. Export inspections at 24 mil. bu. were above expectations and a 7 month high. YTD inspections at 715 mil. are up 15% from YA, vs. the USDA forecast of up 16%. MM’s were net buyers of 6.5k in CGO, 4.6k in MGEX while selling 9.3k in KC. Although MM’s have been net buyers for 3 consecutive weeks across the 3 classes, they remain net short 163k contracts, a historically large amount. SovEcon reports Russia will export 2.2 mmt of grain in April, up from 1.9 mmt in March and steady with April-24. Russia has called for a 3 day cease fire in their war with Ukraine from May 8th thru 10th, coinciding with the 80th anniversary to the end of WWII.
Charts provided by QST.
>>See more market commentary here.
Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.
ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.
A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.
© 2021 ADM Investor Services International Limited.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.
