Written Commentary
Ag Market View for April 10.2026
April 10, 2026
CORN
Prices were $.02-$.03 lower closing near the midpoint of the sessions range. Spreads were mixed. May-26 dipped to a 6 week low before recovering. Next support for Dec-26 is the 100 day MA at $4.67 ¾. The USDA did announce a flash sale of 126k mt (5 mil. bu.) of corn to an unknown buyer. No surprises in yesterday’s USDA WASDE report with US ending stocks holding steady at 2.127 bil. bu. Huge gap in Argentine production est. with the USDA at 52 mmt, the Rosario Exchange at 67 mmt, while the BAGE in between at 57 mmt. If their final production is closer to the RE estimate US corn will find much competition in Q4 of the 25/26 MY. Brazil’s 2nd crop prospects remain high. Argentine harvest has reached 22%. SovEcon lowered Ukraine’s production forecast 1.7 mmt to 28.1 citing fertilizer and fuel supply risks.
SOYBEANS
Sharply mixed trade across the complex with beans up $.05-$.10, meal surged $9-$14 while oil backed up 60 points. Bean and meal spreads were strong while oil spreads were flat. May-26 beans were not able to break out of its 4 week range between $11.40-$11.80. Resistance for Nov-26 beans is at $11.64. The surge in May-26 meal stopped shy of its March high of $335.50. Fueling the surge in meal prices were indications Iran is seeking meal from Brazil, a flash 100k tons US sale to Italy along with the Brazilian real surging to a 2 year high. For a change energy prices were reasonably quiet in 2 sided trade with no major developments in the US/Iran war. May-26 oil closed at about the midpoint of today’s range. Crush margins surged $.14 bu. to $2.92 with bean oil PV pulling back to 50.3%. No surprise the USDA held ending stocks steady at 350 mil. bu. Also surprised the increased meal supplies were absorbed via higher domestic usage while no increase to exports. Chinese weapons supplied to Iran could complicate negotiations. The BAGE kept Argentine production at 48.5 mmt, just above USDA’s 48 mmt forecast. This afternoon’s CFTC data will likely print out another record long by MM’s in soybean oil.
WHEAT
Prices ranged from steady in KC to $.07 lower in MIAX. Nearby spreads firmed while back months weakened. The 50 day MA capped the CGO July-26 rally attempt. KC July-26 for now rejected trade below $6.00. MIAX July-26 has fallen below its 50 day MA for first time in 2 months. US stocks were slightly above expectations at 938 mil. bu. The bearishness of yesterday’s 6 mmt increase in global supplies may be muted a bit by the fact most of the increase (4.8 mmt) occurred in India and not in traditional exporting countries. That said however, stock/use among exporting countries did jump to 18.2% vs. 17.7% last month, the highest in decades. While US WW areas in drought rose 3% LW to 68%, a fresh 52-week high, look for easing in future updates.
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