Ag Market View for Apr 16
Soybeans, soyoil, new crop corn traded higher. Nearby corn was lower. Soymeal was unchanged. US stocks were higher. US Dollar and Crude were marginally lower. Gold was higher. Hogs were lower.
Nearby soybean traded higher. Some feel SK will test 14.50 resistance. Some of the buying was due to higher US domestic basis. One Midwest crushers was reported paying as high as +100 SK for beans. US Sept to March total soybean use was a record 3,370 mil bu. US April 1 stocks are estimated at 5 year low and 1,300 mil bu. US domestic crush margins are positive suggesting crush use has not yet been slowed. Talk of lower summer crush due to drop in soybean supplies and higher World vegoil prices has BOK back above 56 cents and could soon test 57.56 high. Soymeal futures have been under pressure due to lower China prices. Q1 China pork production was up 32 pct from ly. Weights were down and could suggest her liquidation. China increase wheat feeding also lowering soymeal use. China is pushing large funds into stopping ASF and increasing herd size which should help soymeal demand.
Corn futures closed mixed. CK traded lower on talk of increase US farmer when futures traded above 6.00, talk of rains in central Brazil and concern about final US export demand. Support is found from commercial talk of increase ethanol production and feelings China will take the 23 mmt of corn on US books. This could bring China 2020/21 total con imports near a record 30 mmt. Some feel China could take 50 mmt next year all origins. There was talk USDA est of 24 mmt suggest 6 mmt of US open and unshipped sales could be rolled forward. There remains concern over dry weather in C Brazil could lower their 2nd corn crop. There was talk Brazil poultry grower may have bought Argentina corn. Managed money were adding to new longs before US summer weather. Some forecast could see a dry summers especially across US plains and WCB states. Cold temps now could be slowing plantings and germination. This could reduce the chance for record or even trend national corn yield. There was new talk in Washington to reopen CRP enrollment to try to help with Climate objectives. Argentina increased their corn crop est 1 mmt to 46. This is still below USDA est. 14 pct of the crop is harvest vs 25 average.
Wheat futures traded mixed with WK down 1 cent and KWK and MWK up 1 cent. WK ended near 6.53. WK could be in a 6.40-6.60 range. US SRW crop ratings are expected increase on Monday and export demand remains slow. KWK ended near 6.09. KWK could be in a 6.00-6.20 range. Talk of cold KS/OK temps next Wednesday must be watched. MWK is near 6.64. Range could be 6.50-6.70. Dry summer could push MWK over 7.00. There is talk that Nigeria may no longer pay Foreign currency for imported wheat. They will try to increase domestic production and conserve dollars. Nigeria is the 2nd or 3rd buyer of US wheat. They have 1.4 mmt on US books. Russia will restrict navigation od foreign ships in east Black Sea into November. Market not sure if this includes Ukraine grain exports. Dry US plains, Canada prairie and west Europe summer weather could support prices. Wheat futures should also follow corn.
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