Ag Market View for Apr 14.23
The soybean complex was lower across the board with spot soybeans slightly lower while new crop futures were $.10 – $.11 lower. Soybean meal was off $3 – $4, while oil was down roughly 5 points. May-23 soybeans violated 100 day MA support at $14.95 however a late day recovering enabled it to close just above the $15 level. Argentine farmers sold 312k mt of soybeans in the first 2 days of the latest currency incentive program, roughly half of what was priced in the Dec-23 program. The BAGE kept their Argentine production forecast at 25 mmt, however cautioned if may decline further as a higher percentage of fields are likely to be abandoned. Harvest is only 4% complete. Wire services are reporting 30k mt of soybeans will be leaving a Brazilian port in late April destined for North Carolina. This was a deal completed weeks ago. US soybeans remain at roughly $90/mt premium to Brazil. In an effort to reduce their reliance on huge soybean imports China has proposed a 3 year plan to cut soybean meal feed rations to 13% from 14.5% YA. Brazilian Pres. Lula met with Chinese leader Xi in Beijing today. In a joint statement the 2 countries acknowledge that cooperation in agricultural trade is strategically significant. Both sides pledged to promote agriculture, trade, and supply chain resiliency while also working to strengthen environmental protections to deal with climate change. NOPA crush on Monday expected to show 183.4 mil. bu. of soybeans processed in March, up from 165.4 mil. in Feb-23 and 182.5 mil. in Mch-22.
Prices finished $.06 – $.14 higher led by strength in the spot market as prices surged into new highs on the close. May-23 closed back above the 100 day MA, while coming within $.00 ½ of the April high of $6.68 ½. The summerlike conditions across the Midwest will end this weekend as temperatures cool to below normal readings. Rainfall over the next 7 days favors the NC Midwest. Little to no relief for the drought ravaged Southern plains. Prolonged planting delays are not expected across the southern Midwest. Temperatures will quickly warm by early to middle of next week back to above normal readings with the exception of the far north. The USDA announced the sale of 382k tons (15 mil. bu.) of corn to China. 10 mil. bu. were old crop, with 5 mil. for 2023/24 MY. This brings the 2 day total to just over 700k tons. It appears China isn’t taking any chances on the Black Sea Grain deal being extended beyond mid-May as they are estimated to have roughly 1 mmt of corn purchases on the books from Ukraine. The BAGE kept their Argentine corn production forecast unchanged at 36 mmt. Harvest is reported at 13% complete. I look for US planting progress to reach 10 – 12% in Monday’s crop progress report which would be the highest since 2016.
Prices surged in all 3 classed led by KC wheat up $.30 – $.33, MGEX up $.20 – $.25, while Chicago was $.14 – $.16 higher. All 3 classes managed to scratch out higher closes for the week. The on-going drought in the Southern plains and elevated risk the BSGI will expire in just over a month seems to be stimulating the short covering surge. Look for US crop ratings to continue their decline on Monday elevating abandonment levels. Next resistance for KC May-23 is this week’s high of $8.86, followed by the April high of $9.02. KC May-23 premium over Chicago surged back $.18 today to $1.96 ¼, within a nickel of its all-time high established earlier this week at $2.01. Today’s surge in May-23 MGEX was capped by 50 day MA resistance at $8.77 ¼. Still no precise breakdown on yesterday’s Algerian purchase of 400k – 450k tons of durum wheat from Canada and Mexico.
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