Written Commentary
Ag Market View for July 26.24
July 26, 2024
SOYBEANS
Soybeans traded sharply lower. Last week’s failure to lower US soybean carryout, increased Brazil soybean crop and dropped China crush offered resistance. Drop in palmoil prices weighed on soyoil futures which weighed on soybean futures. Talk that China will take measures to lower commodity prices triggered increase Managed funds selling. China also asked lenders to tighten credit growth which also weighed on commodity prices. China soymeal futures were down 9.60 and near $522.90. Weekly US soybean exports were near 12 mil bu vs 17 last year. Season to date exports are near 2,013 mil bu vs 1,186 last year. USDA goal is 2,280 mil bu vs 1,682 last year. Some feel final total demand could be higher and suggest final US carryout closer to 100. SK closed below the 20 and 50 day moving averages. Next support is near recent lows near 13.64. 13.30 is next support. SX traded below 12.50 support. 20 day moving average is near 12.37.
CORN
Nearby corn futures traded lower. CK rejected the 5.80 level. Market may be seeing some long liquidation after China suggested commodity prices were too high. China also asked lenders to tighten credit growth which also weighed on commodity prices. China corn prices were down 9 cents and near $10.42. China has been aggressively selling wheat and rice from reserves and importing record feedgrain imports with some feeling this is to try to lower domestic feed cost. CN-CZ spread also traded back closer to +72 cents with next support near +64. USDA did not lower US 2020/21 corn carryout as low as feared. Some still feel old crop US stocks are tight and prices may need to retest recent highs to slow demand. Weekly US corn exports were near 62 mil bu vs 85 last week and 46 last year. Season to date exports are near 1,479 mil bu vs 812 last year. USDA goal is 2,675 mil bu vs 1,778 last year. Some feel final exports could be closer to 2,800. This and talk if higher US domestic use could drop final US carryout closer to 1,100. China exported 17 mil bu of US corn last week. Some feel they need to export 40 mil bu per week to reach Private est of final exports. US 2 week weather forecast is for cool and dry. This could slow corn plantings until temps warm. Most look for US corn plantings near 5-7 pct versus 7 average.
WHEAT
Wheat futures traded lower. Talk of better World wheat weather and that China suggested World commodity prices were too high may have triggered fund selling. Managed funds had just turned high on concern over US north plains and Canada prairie weather. Moisture across parts of the US north plains offered resistance today. Weekly US wheat exports were near 17 mil bu vs 24 last year. Season to date exports are near 786 mil bu vs 789 last year. USDA goal is 985 mil bu including flour vs 965 last year. Key is now weather. Trade est US weekly winter wheat ratings near 53 pct good/ex vs 53 last week. US spring wheat plantings is estimated near 8 pct done versus 3 last week. WK rejected the 6.40 price level and traded back below the 10 day near 6.32. Next support is near 6.20. KWK dropped below 20 moving average support near 5.80. MWK rejected the 6.55 level. Next support is near 6.33.
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