Ag Market View Aug 4th


Soybeans traded higher on late news China may have been asking for US PNW Oct-Nov soybeans. It has been 7 weeks since the last time China bought US soybeans. Noon US weather maps were mixed. GFS was wetter across parts of IA, MN, WI and IL. EU model is not as wet. Talk of increase China and India demand supported Asian palmoil values which offered support to soyoil near 61.55. Talk US crushers taking downtime due to low soybean supplies and continued active China domestic soymeal buying offered support to meal near key prices. There is also talk that Argentina farmers have slowed cash sales due to Peso inflation. Weekly US soybean exports sales are estimated near -100 to 550 vs -79 old crop and 312 new crop last week. Informa will be out tomorrow with their estimate of US soybean crop. They have been using a soybean crop near 4,379 and a yield of 50.5. USDA August 12. Last year, USDA August farmer survey soybean yield was 53.0. Final soybean yield was 50.2. Some link the drop in final yield to dry August. Others feel farmer only survey may have been too optimistic. Even others feel higher August yields allowed China to buy US soybeans at lower prices.

                                                       Nearby September soybean futures flag formation


Corn futures ended lower. Corn futures continue to struggle as US harvest nears and export demand remains slow. Talk of lower Brazil supplies and exports and fact Argentina farmer is a reluctant seller offered support to domestic cash basis levels. Weekly US ethanol production was near last week but up 9 pct vs last year. Stocks were down from last week but up vs last year. Margins remain negative. New virus spread adds uncertainty to US food and fuel demand. Talk of increase China wheat damage could increase China wheat feed use and lower corn use. Weekly US corn export sales are estimated near -150 to 600 mt vs -115 old crop and 529 last week. There is talk of lower Brazil crops and exports and higher China demand. Brazil is forecast to sell 17 mmt corn exports in the current cycle, down from 34.8 million tonnes ly. Informa will be out tomorrow with their estimate of US corn crop. They have been using a corn crop of 14,874 mil bu and 176 yield. There are reports of record harvest corn yields in AL and GA. USDA report August 12. Last year, USDA August farmer survey corn yield was 181. Final corn yield 172. Some link the drop in final yield to dry August. Others feel farmer only survey may have been too optimistic. Even others feel higher August yields allowed China to buy US corn and soybeans at lower prices. Talk is that China needs corn but may be waiting for harvest lows to add to needs.

                                                       Nearby September corn futures flag formation                


Wheat is wheat. WU ended down 7 cents and near 7.17 with range of 7.14 to 7.38. WU had an outside day closing below Tuesdays low. This could be a negative tech action if lower tomorrow. Some feel wheat prices had gained too much vs corn, US export prices are a premium to other World sellers. KWU ended near 6.94 with range 6.92 to 7.19. Some feel high HRW prices vs corn may reduce domestic wheat feeding. MWU ended near 9.03 with ranges 8.99 to 9.24. Some feel that despite lower supplies talk of good quality both protein, TW and limited shriveled kernels may be offering resistance to prIces. Fact Russia and Canada crop combined could be down 20 mmt from USDA offers support. Informa will be out tomorrow with their estimate of US wheat crop. USDA spring crop 305 mil bu vs 530 ly, Durum 37 vs 69. USDA all wheat US crop 1,746 vs 1,826 ly. HRW 805 vs 659, SRW 362 vs 266 and white 237 vs 302.

                                                Weekly nearby KC wheat minus nearby corn futures spread

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