Ag Market View Aug 27th


Soybean futures ended lower. SX ended near 13.23. Range was 13.07 to 13.25. SMZ ended near 352.4. BOZ ended higher and near 60.34 with a range 58.41 to 60.65. For the month soybean futures were down 36 cents and soyoil was down 4 cents per pound. Weekly US soybean Inspections were near 2,163 mil bu. Weekly export sales shipments were near 2,203. USDA export goal is 2,260. Some could see USDA increase US 20/21 carryout 20-30 mil bu from 160. Some feel that recent north US Midwest rains could increase final US 2021 crop from USDA August guess of 4,339. This could add to US 21/22 carryout of 155. Key will be USDA Sep 10 crop estimate and Sep 30 estimate of Sep 1 US soybean stocks. Demand bulls still look for a post US harvest bounce in soybean futures. Tech watchers are looking for lower prices.


Corn futures ended higher and near session high. CZ ended near 5.53 with a range of 5.44 to 5.54. Talk of sharply higher US domestic corn basis and lack of Sep corn deliveries helped support the rally. Corn futures continue in a range. Lack of farmer selling offers support. There is a large debate over the final US corn yield and crop size. Some feel recent heat and dryness could take the top off final yields. Some feel final yield could be closer to 173 vs USDA August est of 174.6 and Pro Farmer est of 177. There is also talk that US farmer crop insurance data suggest final planted acres could be up 1.0-1.5 million acres. There is also concern that US new crop corn exports sales pace is slow and contrary to forecast of higher exports due to lower Brazil supply. US 20/21 corn exports are est near 2,775 mil bu versus 1,777 last year. USDA est 21/22 corn exports near 2,400. Most analyst could see exports closer to 2,750. USDA Sep 10 crop estimate and Sep 30 est of US Sep 1 stocks could be key to prices. Corn prices tended to bounce after US Fed Chairman was not yet ready to taper or increase US interest rates. US Dollar dropped on the news. Crop analyst est Brazil 2022 corn acres to increase 5-6 pct and est the crop near 116-118 mmt vs 87 this year. Some even feel this year crop could be as low as 72.


Wheat futures ended mixed. WZ ended down 6 cents and near 7.32 with a range 7.31-7.45. KWZ ended down 5 cents and near 7.23 with a range  of 7.21 to 7.35. Some liquidation before first notice and option expiration offered resistance. Some feel talk that domestic wheat buyers have only 50 pct coverage OND needs. This could support KWZ near 7.00. There was talk that domestic corn prices across US south plains are lower than wheat which could reduce future wheat feeding. There is also talk that recent

rally in French wheat export prices suggest US SRW export prices is a discount to French low protein prices. US all wheat export commit is near 335 mil bu vs 431 last year. USDA goal is 875 vs 992 last year. USDA latest est of US 21/22 wheat carryout is 627 mil bu vs 844 last year. USDA dropped World wheat 21/22 end stocks to 279 mmt vs291 est in July and 289 last year. Major exporters end stocks are now est near 32 mmt vs 39 est in July and 33 last year.

Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.

ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.                  

A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.

© 2021 ADM Investor Services International Limited.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone.  Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.  The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM.  The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared.  The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets.  However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.

Latest News & Market Commentary

Explore the latest edition of The Ghost in the Machine

Explore Now