Written Commentary
Ag Market View for July 26.24
July 26, 2024
SOYBEANS
Soybean futures ended lower. SX ended near 13.23. Range was 13.07 to 13.25. SMZ ended near 352.4. BOZ ended higher and near 60.34 with a range 58.41 to 60.65. For the month soybean futures were down 36 cents and soyoil was down 4 cents per pound. Weekly US soybean Inspections were near 2,163 mil bu. Weekly export sales shipments were near 2,203. USDA export goal is 2,260. Some could see USDA increase US 20/21 carryout 20-30 mil bu from 160. Some feel that recent north US Midwest rains could increase final US 2021 crop from USDA August guess of 4,339. This could add to US 21/22 carryout of 155. Key will be USDA Sep 10 crop estimate and Sep 30 estimate of Sep 1 US soybean stocks. Demand bulls still look for a post US harvest bounce in soybean futures. Tech watchers are looking for lower prices.
CORN
Corn futures ended higher and near session high. CZ ended near 5.53 with a range of 5.44 to 5.54. Talk of sharply higher US domestic corn basis and lack of Sep corn deliveries helped support the rally. Corn futures continue in a range. Lack of farmer selling offers support. There is a large debate over the final US corn yield and crop size. Some feel recent heat and dryness could take the top off final yields. Some feel final yield could be closer to 173 vs USDA August est of 174.6 and Pro Farmer est of 177. There is also talk that US farmer crop insurance data suggest final planted acres could be up 1.0-1.5 million acres. There is also concern that US new crop corn exports sales pace is slow and contrary to forecast of higher exports due to lower Brazil supply. US 20/21 corn exports are est near 2,775 mil bu versus 1,777 last year. USDA est 21/22 corn exports near 2,400. Most analyst could see exports closer to 2,750. USDA Sep 10 crop estimate and Sep 30 est of US Sep 1 stocks could be key to prices. Corn prices tended to bounce after US Fed Chairman was not yet ready to taper or increase US interest rates. US Dollar dropped on the news. Crop analyst est Brazil 2022 corn acres to increase 5-6 pct and est the crop near 116-118 mmt vs 87 this year. Some even feel this year crop could be as low as 72.
WHEAT
Wheat futures ended mixed. WZ ended down 6 cents and near 7.32 with a range 7.31-7.45. KWZ ended down 5 cents and near 7.23 with a range of 7.21 to 7.35. Some liquidation before first notice and option expiration offered resistance. Some feel talk that domestic wheat buyers have only 50 pct coverage OND needs. This could support KWZ near 7.00. There was talk that domestic corn prices across US south plains are lower than wheat which could reduce future wheat feeding. There is also talk that recent
rally in French wheat export prices suggest US SRW export prices is a discount to French low protein prices. US all wheat export commit is near 335 mil bu vs 431 last year. USDA goal is 875 vs 992 last year. USDA latest est of US 21/22 wheat carryout is 627 mil bu vs 844 last year. USDA dropped World wheat 21/22 end stocks to 279 mmt vs291 est in July and 289 last year. Major exporters end stocks are now est near 32 mmt vs 39 est in July and 33 last year.
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