Written Commentary
Ag Market View for July 26.24
July 26, 2024
SOYBEANS
Soybeans ended lower on fears of lower US 20/21 final US demand increasing US 20/21 soybean carryout. US upper Midwest rains could add to 2021 crop bushels there and offset potential lower yields in Central US Midwest where temps have been above normal and rain below normal. Some in market may now be trading US soybean yield closer to 51 than USDA 50. US 2021/21 soybean shipments are near 2,203 mil bu vs 1,579 last year. USDA goal is 2,260 vs 1,679 last year. This could suggest US 20/21 soybean carryout could be increased 20-30 mil bu from 160. China 20/21 soybean exports are near 1,291 mil bu. New crop China soybean sales are near 244 mil bu. Some report China may have bought 20-30 US soybean cargoes this week or 1.7 mmt. USDA reported that 2022 China hog production could be down 5 pct and pork production down 14 pct yoy.
CORN
Corn futures ended mixed. Tightening old crop supplies and lack deliveries helped CU gain 1 cent and end near 5.52. Talk of lower than expected US export sales dropped CZ 2 censt and near 5.50. Talk of higher Brazil 2022 and Argentina corn acres weighed on CZ22 down 6 cents and near 5.15. Some yesterday suggested that current CZ22 prices were not high enough to increase US 2022 acres enough to satisfy projected demand and increase carryout. One analyst est US 20/21 corn exports near 2,790 and 21/22 at 2,600. There estimate of final US 2021 corn acres ss 94.4 vs USDA 92.7. Their yield is 174 with a US carryout near 1,117 mil bu vs USDA 1,242. US 2020/21 corn export commit is near 2,768 mil bu vs 1,721 last year. Shipments are near 2,605 mil bu vs 1,659 last year. USDA goal is 2,775 vs 1,777 last year. There is 163 mil bu of old crop unshipped corn that could be rolled forward. China 20/21 corn exports are near 846 mil bu. New crop China corn sales are near 421 mil bu. Trade est World non US exporters 2021 production down 10 mmt from last year and 2021/22 World corn demand up 22 mmt. Conad est Brazil 2022 corn acres up 4 pct and crop near 116 mmt vs USDA 118 and 87 this year. Will see what La Nina does to the final 2022 Brazil corn crop.
WHEAT
Wheat futures ended higher. Talk of lower World wheat crops helped rally Wheat futures. WU ended up 14 cents and near 7.25 on talk of no deliveries and that US SRW fob prices are now 40 cents below low protein French Wheat prices. WZ ended up 13 cents and near 7.39. Trade over 7.49 is needed to negate a negative chart formation. KWU ended up 15 cents and near 7.17. KWZ ended up 14 cents and near 7.29. KWZ needs to trade over 7.30 to offset a similar negative chart formation. MWZ ended up 3 cents and near 9.11. Increase harvest pressure may be limiting new buying vs the winter wheat. IGC lowered World wheat crop 6 mmt to 782. Russia was lowered from 81 mmt to 75, Canada was lowered from 28.5 to 24.6 and US from 47..5 to 46.2. Increase in Ukraine from 29.5 to 32 and Australia from 28.9 to 30.1 could not offset the declines. US Wheat export sales were 4 mil bu. Total commit is near 335 mil bu vs 431 last year. USDA goal is 875 vs 992 last year.
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