Ag Market View Aug 23rd

SOYBEANS

Soybeans traded higher. Managed funds have been net buyers of 2,000 soybeans, and 7,000 soyoil and sold 3,000 soymeal. Soybeans started lower overnight on follow through selling from last week’s weak trade. Futures rebounded on talk that weekend rains were less than expected for parts of SD, NS, MN, IA, IL and IN. This week’s soyoil futures are rebounding after some feel final US 2021 biofuel demand could be higher than 2020 despite wire service report that EPA was going to suggest WH lower the 2021 mandate below 2020. There were no new US soybean sales announced to China today. That may be offering resistance to SX near 13.00. Weekly soybean exports were near 6 mil bu vs 45 last year. Season to date exports are near 2,163 vs 1,558 last year. USDA goal is 2,260 vs 1,679 ly. Some analyst est exports 15 mil bu lower which could add to USDA 160 carryout.

CORN

Corn futures traded marginally lower. Lack of confirmation of new US Corn sales to China and approaching US harvest offers resistance. Talk US farmers may be reluctant sellers at current prices and sales to Mexico offered support. Managed funds have been net sellers of 4,000 corn. We estimate managed funds are net long 255,000 corn. Grains started lower overnight on follow through selling from last week’s weak trade. Futures tried to rebound on talk that weekend rains were less than expected for parts of SD, NS, MN, IA, IL and IN. Trade est weekly corn ratings down 1 pct. Corn futures found support after some feel final US 2021 biofuel demand could be higher than 2020. Most look for higher 2022 than 2021 mandates. Weekly corn exports were near 28 mil bu vs 35 last year. Season to date exports are near 2,562 vs 1,632 last year. USDA goal is 2,775 vs 1,777 ly. Most look for US 2021 corn crop near 15,100 vs USDA 14,750 and carryout near 1,100 vs USDA 1,242. USDA announced 458 mt US corn sold to Mexico. CZ made new lows below Fridays low. There was some talk of increase consumer buying below 5.40. Market remains oversold.

WHEAT

Wheat futures ended higher. Lower US Dollar and talk of lower World supply offered support. WZ ended near 7.33. Range was 7.24 to 7.45. KWZ ended near 7.19. Range was 7.10 to 7.29. MWZ ended near 9.05. Range was 8.94 to 9.14. Some buying wheat and selling corn also offered support to wheat. Managed funds have been net buyers of 3,000 wheat. We estimate managed funds are net long 16,000 wheat. Grains started lower overnight on follow through selling from last week’s weak trade. Futures rebounded on talk US fall south plains forecast could be warm and dry. Trade est weekly US spring wheat harvest could be near 80 pct. Weekly wheat exports were near 24 mil bu vs 21 last year. Season to date exports are near 208 vs 229 last year. USDA goal is 875 vs 992 ly. US wheat export prices remain a premium to EU and Black Sea prices. Most look for US 2021 wheat carryout near 555 vs USDA 627. Despite talk form Russia government, Russia harvest yields are below average and last year. Stats Canada will release soon 2021 crop updates.

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