Ag Market View Aug 19th
Soybeans traded sharply lower. SX gave back most of the gains from the rally that started in early August. Selloff linked in part to new concerns about the spread of the Covid reducing global food and fuel demand. Weekly US soybean n export sales were near 2 mil bu. Total commit is near 2,281 mil bu vs 1,737 last year. USDA goal is 2,260 vs 1,679 last year. New crop sales rose 78 mil bu. Total commit is near 509 mil bu. USDA 21/22 export goal is 2,055. USDA announced 263 mt new US soybean sales to China and 148 mt to Mexico. Last year over the next 5 weeks US soybean sales average 95 mil bu per week. After that the next 4 weeks averaged 55 mil bu. Some doubt sales will be that high given competition from Brazil and lower China demand. Over the weekend and early next week much of north cornbelt plus the Ohio River valley should see rains. Next week US Midwest could see scattered showers and more normal temps. First week in September should return to drier and warmer weather.
Corn futures traded lower. CZ ended near 5.50 with a range near 5.46 to 5.63. CZ closed below the 100 day moving average for the first time since July 9. Prior to July 9 CZ traded in a wide range between 5.20 and 5.80. Some feel that end users should increase coverage below 5.50. Most doubt US farmers will increase cash sales at current values. Lack of new export buying especially by China also offers resistance to corn futures. Pro Farmer will conclude their US Midwest crop tour today finishing up surveying east IA and MN. So far their OH corn yield was 185 vs USDA 193, IN 193 vs 194, IL 196 vs 214, NE 182 vs 186 and SD 151 VS 133. USDA August IA corn yield was 193, MN 166. Weekly US corn export sales were near 8 mil bu. Total commit is near 2,768 mil bu vs 1,741 last year. USDA goal is 2,775 vs 1,777 last year. New crop sales rose 20 mil bu. Open commit is near 732 mil bu. USDA 21/22 export goal is 2,400. Some feel exports could increase to 2,800 due to lower Brazil supplies. Over the weekend and early next week much of the US north plains and north cornbelt plus the Ohio River valley should see rains. Next week US Midwest could see scattered showers and more normal temps. First week in September should return to drier and warmer weather. Russia is still dry. South America is also dry.
Wheat futures traded lower. Lower US equites and lower energy prices plus higher US Dollar raised concern about US/World economies and food demand. Fact US July food prices were up 31 pct also raised concern about higher food inflation and lower food demand. There is already talk that increase cases of the virus variant in the US may slow traffic into restaurants. Many large US cities are back to mask mandates. Increase violence in major cities could also slow consumer demand. Weekly US wheat export sales were near 11 mil bu. Total commit is near 331 mil bu vs 404 last year. USDA goal is 875 vs 992 last year. Russia and French prices continue to trend higher vs US. NWS 30 day weather outlook calls for above normal temps in US PNW and north plains. Rainfall is below normal in west US above in East. 90 day forecast calls for above temps and below normal rains in west half of US above in east third.
Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.
ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.
A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.
© 2021 ADM Investor Services International Limited.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.